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Oilers at Predators
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
3
Nashville Predators
▸4
Final/OTTV BSSO, SN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in overtime, Alexandre Carrier scoring at 2:12. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexandre Carrier's goal at 2:12 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.6 to 3.1; shots on goal were EDM 33, NSH 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 0.9 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Alexandre Carrier (1 G), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G), 3. Mattias Ekholm (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    A. Carrier1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    M. Duchene1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. Ekholm1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM1101131703333
NSHNSH1142901111435

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    M. Ekholm(2)
    T. Novak (1)
    snapxG 0.33win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:35
  2. EDM
    J. Puljujarvi(2)
    D. Nurse (13), J. Campbell (1)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    8:42

2nd period

  1. NSH
    J. Gross(3)
    Y. Trenin (5), R. Johansen (9)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    2:57
  2. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(16)PPG
    C. McDavid (35), T. Barrie (22)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +13 pts
    2-2
    4:22
  3. NSH
    M. Duchene(8)PPG
    M. Granlund (16), C. Glass (3)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    12:02

3rd period

  1. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(17)PPG
    C. McDavid (36)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    1:51

Overtime

  1. NSH
    A. Carrier(2)
    C. Glass (4), N. Niederreiter (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    2:12

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:34NSHCole Smith · Holdingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min

2nd

  • 3:30NSHFilip Forsberg · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jack Campbell2 min
  • 4:59EDMCody Ceci · High stickingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 10:25EDMKlim Kostin · Slashingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

3rd

  • 1:19NSHRyan Johansen · High stickingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalEDM goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Alexandre Carrier, OT 2:12 — NSH 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Ekholm · Goal · xG 0.33M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.25M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.20C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.20M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.18T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.16C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.13Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.11Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.11N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.10A. Carrier · Goal · xG 0.09N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.08T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.08M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.07T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.05M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.02T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gross · Goal · xG 0.01J. Gross · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gross · On goal · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.00F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.00M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 3.1 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsNSH
3.63 G
All situations
4 G3.1
2.81 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.82 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM58%42%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.55 – 3.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsNSH
33
Shots on goal
35
46%
Faceoffs
54%
2/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
22
Hits
20
9
Blocked shots
15
5
Giveaways
7
7
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD011+130.27100—27:13
97C. McDavidC022-210.130004025:00
22T. BarrieD011-220.09020—22:18
29L. DraisaitlC000-240.951004721:47
18Z. HymanL000-170.81300—21:43
27B. KulakD000-100.01210—19:56
5C. CeciD000+110.04112—19:07
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC202050.561006918:38
26M. JanmarkC000010.08010017:46
2E. BouchardD000-100.00010—17:19
56K. YamamotoR000020.14310—16:50
80M. NiemelainenD000-100.00400—13:10
37W. FoegeleL000010.12000—11:56
55D. HollowayL000+110.141102211:12
13J. PuljujarviR101020.06000—10:57
10D. RyanC000-110.010004010:37
21K. KostinC000000.00402008:49
14D. ShoreC000020.171104008:48
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(O)35314.8863.14-0.8662:05

Season series

EDM leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).