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Oilers at Flames
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
▸5
Calgary Flames
4
Final/OTTV ESPN, CBC·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Calgary Flames 5-4 in overtime, Connor McDavid scoring at 5:03. The Oilers came back from two goals down. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 5:03 of overtime, which took the Oilers' chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals were close — EDM 2.6, CGY 2.6; shots on goal were EDM 35, CGY 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 1.4 goals below expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 2.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Zach Hyman (1 G, 2 A), 2. Connor McDavid (1 G), 3. Mikael Backlund (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    Z. Hyman1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Backlund1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM0641301412535
CGYCGY153180706436

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(3)
    B. Coleman (2), M. Backlund (3)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    10:13

2nd period

  1. CGY
    M. Backlund(5)
    M. Stone (3), B. Coleman (3)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    5:41
  2. EDM
    D. Nurse(2)
    L. Draisaitl (16), Z. Hyman (3)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    7:40
  3. EDM
    J. Puljujarvi(2)
    Z. Hyman (4)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    9:56
  4. EDM
    Z. Hyman(8)PPG
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (7), L. Draisaitl (17)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    14:57
  5. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(3)
    O. Kylington (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    15:12
  6. CGY
    C. Jarnkrok(1)
    N. Zadorov (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +21 pts
    3-4
    15:28
  7. EDM
    E. Bouchard(3)
    L. Draisaitl (18), D. Keith (4)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +21 pts
    4-4
    16:08

Overtime

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(7)
    L. Draisaitl (19)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +52 pts
    5-4
    5:03

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·CGY 2 PIM

1st

  • 11:31EDMConnor McDavid · High stickingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min

2nd

  • 14:29CGYDillon Dube · Chargingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min
  • 16:36EDMEvander Kane · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalEDM goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, OT 5:03 — EDM 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.22A. Mangiapane · Goal · xG 0.15J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.10A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.09E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.09J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.09N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.08B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.07M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.07J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.07M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.07J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.07E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.06J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.06T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.06D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.06E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.06A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.06M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.06M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.05M. Backlund · Goal · xG 0.05T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.05D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.05J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.04N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.04J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.04A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.03J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.03E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.02T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.02O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.02O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.02B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.01M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.01B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01
CGY4 G · 2.6 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsCGY
2.65 G
All situations
4 G2.6
2.34 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.11 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM49%51%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 2.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsCGY
35
Shots on goal
36
33%
Faceoffs
67%
1/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
23
Hits
28
19
Blocked shots
13
10
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
17

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
97C. McDavidC101+240.364026026:16
29L. DraisaitlC044+220.250003325:48
2D. KeithD011000.00040—25:17
91E. KaneL000-250.44312—24:43
18Z. HymanL123+470.70410—23:38
25D. NurseD101+230.07010—23:25
5C. CeciD000+100.04220—22:27
75E. BouchardD101030.14000—21:34
56K. YamamotoR000-120.08420—20:01
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC011-110.171201419:55
27B. KulakD000-110.01120—19:18
22T. BarrieD000-200.01000—17:44
71R. McLeodC000020.040001114:39
37W. FoegeleL000-100.00210—11:34
13J. PuljujarviR101030.14110—10:38
10D. RyanC000-120.100205707:13
15J. ArchibaldR000-100.00100—04:17
44Z. KassianR000-100.00000—02:48
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41M. Smith(W)36324.8892.62-1.3865:03

Series

EDM leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).