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Avalanche at Jets
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Winnipeg Jets
4
Final/OTTV ALT, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-4 in overtime, Cale Makar scoring at 2:42. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cale Makar's goal at 2:42 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 4.0 to 3.6; shots on goal were COL 37, WPG 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Pavel Francouz stopped 39 of 43 (.907); Connor Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 37 (.865), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikolaj Ehlers (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mark Scheifele (2 G, 1 A), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL1152131514537
WPGWPG21201421601443

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. Aube-Kubel(9)
    A. Newhook (15), J. Manson (7)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    5:10
  2. WPG
    M. Scheifele(28)
    N. Ehlers (21), P. Stastny (18)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    10:32
  3. WPG
    N. Ehlers(23)
    M. Scheifele (40)
    tip-inxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    17:35

2nd period

  1. COL
    A. Burakovsky(20)
    C. Makar (52), B. Byram (7)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    3:55
  2. COL
    E. Johnson(7)
    A. Newhook (16), N. Sturm (10)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    9:11

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(25)
    A. Burakovsky (33), M. Rantanen (50)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    4:04
  2. WPG
    M. Scheifele(29)
    J. Morrissey (21)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +9 pts
    4-3
    16:25
  3. WPG
    N. Ehlers(24)PPG
    P. Dubois (27), P. Stastny (19)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +46 pts
    4-4
    19:44

Overtime

  1. COL
    C. Makar(25)PPG
    M. Rantanen (51), N. MacKinnon (51)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    2:42

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·WPG 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:55WPGJosh Morrissey · Interferencedrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

2nd

  • 17:18WPGBrenden Dillon · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by J.T. Compher0 min
  • 17:28COLCale Makar · Trippingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min

3rd

  • 5:02WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Cross checkingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 11:55COLNico Sturm · Trippingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 19:16COLMikko Rantanen · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min

OT

  • 0:45WPGNikolaj Ehlers · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCOL goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Cale Makar, OT 2:42 — COL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Toninato · On goal · xG 0.24N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.22A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.19P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.18M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.16N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.16N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.15A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.14M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.14M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.14M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.12P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.12P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.10P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.10J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.10M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.09A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.09M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.08J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.07J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.06K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.06M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.05P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.04K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.04B. Dillon · On goal · xG 0.04D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.03K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.03P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.03M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.03J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.02M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG4 G · 4.0 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsWPG
3.65 G
All situations
4 G4.0
2.24 G
Even strength
3 G3.4
1.11 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 106 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL44%56%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.56 – 3.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsWPG
37
Shots on goal
43
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
29
Hits
30
18
Blocked shots
13
9
Giveaways
7
1
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD112+230.39022—27:45
29N. MacKinnonC112+2110.724102923:38
7D. ToewsD000-110.03120—22:52
96M. RantanenR022+230.381127122:15
42J. MansonD011010.04520—20:33
13V. NichushkinR000-120.62000—19:42
4B. ByramD011+210.05210—18:11
62A. LehkonenL000-110.30100—17:45
95A. BurakovskyL112+230.15100—17:41
37J. CompherL000-110.412106316:48
3J. JohnsonD000-130.04010—16:09
6E. JohnsonD101030.18320—14:40
43D. HelmC000-200.002205012:07
11A. CoglianoC000-210.15120011:56
78N. SturmC011+200.021025011:40
18A. NewhookC022+210.09110011:17
25L. O'ConnorR000-210.04200—10:51
16N. Aube-KubelR101+210.01200—09:45
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39P. Francouz(W)43394.9074.02+0.0262:42

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).