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Red Wings at Senators
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
2
Ottawa Senators
▸5
FinalTV BSDET, TVAS·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-2. The Red Wings scored first; the Senators answered. The Senators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Norris's goal at 14:16 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 73% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.8 to 2.4; shots on goal were DET 32, OTT 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 31 of 34 (.912); Anton Forsberg stopped 30 of 32 (.938). Three stars: 1. Josh Norris (3 G), 2. Mathieu Joseph (3 A), 3. Brady Tkachuk (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    J. Norris3 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Joseph3 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET1609117232
OTTOTT11421428536

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    M. Rasmussen(10)
    J. Vrana (3), F. Hronek (29)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    7:21
  2. OTT
    A. Zub(6)
    B. Tkachuk (25), M. Joseph (13)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    18:18

2nd period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(28)PPG
    T. Stützle (28), B. Tkachuk (26)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    2:32
  2. OTT
    J. Norris(29)
    N. Holden (10), M. Joseph (14)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    14:16

3rd period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(29)
    F. Hronek (30), M. Staal (12)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    2-3
    12:35
  2. OTT
    J. Norris(30)EN
    M. Joseph (15), N. Zaitsev (6)
    snapxG 0.70win prob +6 pts
    2-4
    18:23
  3. OTT
    N. Zaitsev(2)EN
    N. Holden (11)
    wristxG 0.39
    2-5
    19:15

Penalties

DET 8 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

1st

  • 7:53DETJoseph Veleno · Hookingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min
  • 15:01DETJake Walman · High stickingdrawn by Nick Holden2 min

2nd

  • 2:12DETGustav Lindstrom · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min
  • 5:54DETDanny DeKeyser · Hookingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min
  • 8:43OTTAustin Watson · Hookingdrawn by Jakub Vrana2 min

3rd

  • 14:06OTTNikita Zaitsev · Holdingdrawn by Taro Hirose2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalDET goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Josh Norris, 2nd 14:16 — OTT 73% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.70N. Zaitsev · Goal · xG 0.39T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.26C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.20J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.17J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.15D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.13D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.13D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.11T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.10T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.09N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.09J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.07C. White · On goal · xG 0.07J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.06D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.06M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.05A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.05M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.05M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.04M. Del Zotto · On goal · xG 0.03A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.03D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.03D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Del Zotto · On goal · xG 0.02A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.02A. Zub · Goal · xG 0.02M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.02A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01M. Del Zotto · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01M. Del Zotto · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01M. Del Zotto · On goal · xG 0.01J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.00B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT5 G · 3.8 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsOTT
2.42 G
All situations
3 G3.8
1.92 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET45%55%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsOTT
32
Shots on goal
36
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
31
Hits
30
21
Blocked shots
4
5
Giveaways
10
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD000-320.04340—24:16
71D. LarkinC101-250.491004423:03
17F. HronekD022020.07310—22:36
18M. StaalD011+120.02410—20:40
23L. RaymondL000-220.24210—20:28
8J. WalmanD000-230.21152—18:50
27M. RasmussenC101-110.124202018:22
65D. DeKeyserD000+110.02112—17:13
24P. SuterC000000.260006015:37
28G. LindstromD000-100.00212—15:06
70O. SundqvistC000010.191102014:53
15J. VranaL011-220.12010—14:47
73A. ErneL000-120.02210—13:58
90J. VelenoC000010.033128613:32
11F. ZadinaR000040.37000—12:48
25T. HiroseL000020.07100—10:59
42K. CriscuoloC000010.062105009:50
82J. OesterleD000010.02100—07:38
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29T. Greiss(L)34313.9122.68-0.3259:04

Season series

OTT leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).