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Senators at Red Wings
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸5
Detroit Red Wings
2
FinalTV BSDETX, TSN5·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Norris's goal at 2:25 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 50% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were OTT 32, DET 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Mads Sogaard stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mads Sogaard (27 saves, .931), 2. Mathieu Joseph (3 G, 1 A), 3. Lucas Raymond (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    M. Sogaard27 saves, .931
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Joseph3 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    L. Raymond2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11309410532
DETDET06113110229

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    A. Watson(4)SHG
    M. Joseph (12)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    5:07

2nd period

  1. DET
    L. Raymond(21)
    J. Walman (4)
    backhandxG 0.72win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    2:18

3rd period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(27)PPG
    E. Brannstrom (8), D. Batherson (23)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +23 pts
    2-1
    2:25
  2. OTT
    M. Joseph(9)
    T. Ennis (16), C. White (6)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    3:36
  3. OTT
    M. Joseph(10)
    T. Stützle (27)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +3 pts
    4-1
    13:19
  4. DET
    L. Raymond(22)
    F. Hronek (28), D. Larkin (35)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +2 pts
    4-2
    13:59
  5. OTT
    M. Joseph(11)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.25win prob +2 pts
    5-2
    16:05

Penalties

OTT 12 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:34OTTAlex Formenton · Roughingdrawn by Adam Erne2 min

2nd

  • 11:17DETMichael Rasmussen · Roughingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 11:17OTTTravis Hamonic · Roughingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min
  • 11:17OTTTim Stützle · Cross checkingdrawn by Marc Staal2 min
  • 14:36DETMichael Rasmussen · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min
  • 18:33OTTArtem Zub · Trippingdrawn by Adam Erne2 min
  • 19:52OTTMathieu Joseph · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min

3rd

  • 0:49DETLucas Raymond · Trippingdrawn by Artem Zub2 min
  • 10:07OTTNick Holden · Trippingdrawn by Joseph Veleno2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalOTT goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Josh Norris, 3rd 2:25 — OTT 50% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.72L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.20A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.18L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.18J. Vrana · Missed · xG 0.17D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.14A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.13J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.12O. Sundqvist · Missed · xG 0.12L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.11A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.10L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.08L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.07M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.06F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.06P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.06T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.04P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.04J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.04J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.04M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.04P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.03J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03G. Lindstrom · On goal · xG 0.02P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.02A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.02J. Vrana · Missed · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.01A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.00M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00
DET2 G · 3.0 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsDET
2.34 G
All situations
2 G3.0
1.52 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.31 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT33%67%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.02 – 2.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsDET
32
Shots on goal
29
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/2
Power play
0/5
12
Penalty minutes
6
36
Hits
29
11
Blocked shots
16
5
Giveaways
12
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2A. ZubD000-140.03612—22:56
26E. BrannstromD011-240.09010—22:21
28C. BrownR000-100.000003319:46
22N. ZaitsevD000+220.02220—19:08
15M. Del ZottoD000000.04220—18:24
5N. HoldenD000+310.02402—18:04
10A. FormentonL000-110.1510210017:31
23T. HamonicD000+210.02332—17:24
9J. NorrisC101+130.400003915:39
18T. StützleC011000.022022915:30
19D. BathersonR011000.00200—15:25
7B. TkachukL000+120.055007514:48
21M. JosephR314+370.82002—14:38
36C. WhiteC011+120.185005613:35
63T. EnnisR011000.07010—12:39
27D. GambrellC000030.110003811:56
16A. WatsonL101+120.24300—11:55
17A. GaudetteR000000.00110—08:21
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33M. Sogaard(W)29272.9312.98+0.9860:00

Season series

OTT leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).