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Red Wings at Lightning
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
FinalTV BSDET, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikhail Sergachev's goal at 10:21 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 54% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.2 to 1.9; shots on goal were DET 23, TBL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Brian Elliott stopped 22 of 23 (.957), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Victor Hedman (3 A), 2. Alex Nedeljkovic (35 saves, .946), 3. Brian Elliott (22 saves, .957).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    V. Hedman3 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    A. Nedeljkovic35 saves, .946
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Elliott22 saves, .957

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET081609123
TBLTBL01011929338

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(22)PPG
    V. Hedman (41), N. Kucherov (17)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    6:43
  2. DET
    R. Fabbri(15)
    M. Seider (36), T. Bertuzzi (23)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +20 pts
    1-1
    13:05

3rd period

  1. TBL
    M. Sergachev(4)PPG
    V. Hedman (42), R. Colton (12)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +30 pts
    1-2
    10:21
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(27)EN
    N. Kucherov (18), V. Hedman (43)
    wristxG 0.53win prob +1 pts
    1-3
    19:58

Penalties

DET 8 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 13:08DETRobby Fabbri · Holdingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min
  • 16:53TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min

2nd

  • 5:09DETVladislav Namestnikov · Trippingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 14:52TBLMikhail Sergachev · Holdingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min

3rd

  • 8:25DETPius Suter · High stickingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 19:11DETLucas Raymond · Hookingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalDET goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Mikhail Sergachev, 3rd 10:21 — TBL 54% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.53A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.21S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.19S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.19S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.17O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.16A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.16O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.13N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.12A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.12N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.10B. Point · Goal · xG 0.10A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.09E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.09A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.08M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.07M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.07A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.07O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.06C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.06R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.06B. Point · Missed · xG 0.06O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05M. Sergachev · Goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.04E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.04P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03B. Katchouk · On goal · xG 0.03J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.03B. Katchouk · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.03J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01B. Katchouk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.01P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL3 G · 4.2 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTBL
1.91 G
All situations
2 G4.2
1.41 G
Even strength
0 G2.5
0.40 G
Power play
2 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET21%79%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.84 – 3.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTBL
23
Shots on goal
38
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/2
Power play
3/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
23
Hits
31
10
Blocked shots
10
6
Giveaways
11
11
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD011+130.12510—25:16
71D. LarkinC000030.123005021:49
2N. LeddyD000000.00100—21:32
17F. HronekD000000.00030—20:23
59T. BertuzziL011+110.18200—20:06
82J. OesterleD000010.02010—19:33
23L. RaymondL000010.17202—19:26
92V. NamestnikovC000000.00002017:51
14R. FabbriC101+120.510025017:15
24P. SuterC000+100.140124016:58
70T. StecherD000020.13200—15:17
18M. StaalD000+140.15110—15:10
73A. ErneL000020.1020010013:07
90J. VelenoC000010.011008312:26
89S. GagnerC000000.000002511:31
27M. RasmussenC000020.162102010:56
11F. ZadinaR000010.03010—10:34
37C. RowneyC000000.002105005:33
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(L)37352.9463.66+1.6659:00

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).