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Lightning at Red Wings
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸7
Detroit Red Wings
6
Final/OTTV BSDET, BSSUN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 7-6 in overtime, Ondrej Palat scoring at 2:43. The Lightning came back from three goals down. The Red Wings led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ondrej Palat's goal at 2:43 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.7 to 4.0; shots on goal were TBL 48, DET 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 26 (.769), 2.0 goals below expected; Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 41 of 48 (.854), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ondrej Palat (2 G), 2. Tyler Bertuzzi (4 G), 3. Alex Killorn (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    O. Palat2 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    T. Bertuzzi4 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Killorn1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL01531631413748
DETDET183122600626

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(1)
    R. Fabbri (1), F. Zadina (1)
    wristxG 0.60win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    14:00

2nd period

  1. DET
    T. Bertuzzi(1)
    N. Leddy (1), M. Seider (1)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    0:18
  2. DET
    T. Bertuzzi(2)
    A. Erne (1), G. Lindstrom (1)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    7:52
  3. TBL
    O. Palat(1)
    V. Hedman (2), N. Kucherov (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    8:08
  4. DET
    T. Bertuzzi(3)PPG
    R. Fabbri (2), L. Raymond (1)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +7 pts
    1-4
    12:29
  5. TBL
    S. Stamkos(1)PPG
    N. Kucherov (2), M. Sergachev (1)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +7 pts
    2-4
    15:19
  6. TBL
    S. Stamkos(2)PPG
    M. Sergachev (2), N. Kucherov (3)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    16:31

3rd period

  1. DET
    T. Bertuzzi(4)
    M. Seider (2), D. DeKeyser (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    3-5
    4:35
  2. DET
    V. Namestnikov(1)
    M. Rasmussen (1), N. Leddy (2)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +4 pts
    3-6
    7:10
  3. TBL
    R. Colton(1)
    E. Cernak (1)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +1 pts
    4-6
    13:43
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(1)PPG
    V. Hedman (3), S. Stamkos (3)
    slapxG 0.18win prob +5 pts
    5-6
    16:25
  5. TBL
    A. Killorn(2)
    V. Hedman (4), A. Cirelli (2)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +42 pts
    6-6
    17:41

Overtime

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(2)
    V. Hedman (5), B. Point (1)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +51 pts
    7-6
    2:43

Penalties

TBL 20 PIM·DET 26 PIM

1st

  • 2:58TBLTaylor Raddysh · High sticking double minordrawn by Nick Leddy4 min
  • 8:41DETGivani Smith · Hookingdrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min
  • 19:43TBLPatrick Maroon · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Givani Smith2 min
  • 19:43DETGivani Smith · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min

2nd

  • 5:46TBLAndrej Sustr · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 6:34DETFilip Zadina · Roughingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 6:34TBLRyan McDonagh · Roughingdrawn by Filip Zadina2 min
  • 11:40TBLMathieu Joseph · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 11:40TBLJan Rutta · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 11:40DETDylan Larkin · Match penatly 10 minutesdrawn by Mathieu Joseph10 min
  • 19:41DETGivani Smith · Roughingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 19:41DETMoritz Seider · Roughingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 19:41TBLAnthony Cirelli · Roughingdrawn by Givani Smith2 min
  • 19:41TBLMikhail Sergachev · Roughingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min

3rd

  • 2:25DETTyler Bertuzzi · Trippingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 9:21TBLOndrej Palat · Cross checkingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min
  • 11:19DETSam Gagner · Trippingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 15:49DETRobby Fabbri · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTBL goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Ondrej Palat, OT 2:43 — TBL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.60T. Bertuzzi · Goal · xG 0.35T. Bertuzzi · Goal · xG 0.22R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.21V. Namestnikov · Goal · xG 0.20S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.18P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.18D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.15T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.15P. Suter · Missed · xG 0.15T. Bertuzzi · Goal · xG 0.15D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.14A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.14P. Suter · Missed · xG 0.12A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.12T. Bertuzzi · Goal · xG 0.11L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.10F. Zadina · Missed · xG 0.09P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.09P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.09D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.09M. Staal · Missed · xG 0.06R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.06S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.04D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.03M. Stephens · Missed · xG 0.03R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.02M. Staal · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.01F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.01F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.01M. Staal · On goal · xG 0.01P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.00
DET6 G · 4.0 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDET
4.77 G
All situations
6 G4.0
2.94 G
Even strength
5 G2.3
1.43 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL61%39%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.64 – 3.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDET
48
Shots on goal
26
54%
Faceoffs
46%
3/7
Power play
1/5
20
Penalty minutes
26
13
Hits
16
10
Blocked shots
12
3
Giveaways
8
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD044050.25200—25:51
86N. KucherovR134+180.68010—24:43
21B. PointC011+220.360005322:27
98M. SergachevD022-330.22122—21:56
17A. KillornL101-130.33000—21:45
27R. McDonaghD000020.20132—21:41
81E. CernakD011+130.10410—20:59
71A. CirelliC011-110.001125518:59
91S. StamkosC213050.921106718:14
18O. PalatL202040.46002—15:40
44J. RuttaD000-210.02002—14:35
41P. BellemareL000+110.010003812:09
14P. MaroonL000-120.14002—11:51
79R. ColtonC101-130.391006711:03
10C. PerryR000-130.20010—10:52
29A. SustrD000-100.03002—08:06
7M. JosephR000020.34202—07:34
16T. RaddyshR000+100.00004—07:31
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)26206.7693.97-2.0362:07

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).