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Islanders at Red Wings
NHL

New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings

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New York Islanders
1
Detroit Red Wings
▸2
FinalTV MSG+, BSDET·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the New York Islanders 2-1. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Larkin's goal at 10:32 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 57% to 72%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.9, DET 3.1; shots on goal were NYI 34, DET 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 37 of 39 (.949), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Larkin (1 G), 2. Alex Nedeljkovic (33 saves, .971), 3. Anders Lee (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    A. Nedeljkovic33 saves, .971
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    A. Lee1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI01009115134
DETDET01411817239

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(11)PPG
    M. Seider (17), L. Raymond (15)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    10:32

3rd period

  1. DET
    M. Rasmussen(3)
    A. Erne (6)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    12:55
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(8)
    N. Dobson (6), B. Nelson (3)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +6 pts
    1-2
    17:27

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·DET 2 PIM

1st

  • 14:16NYIScott Mayfield · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min

2nd

  • 4:39DETJordan Oesterle · Trippingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 9:38NYIKyle Palmieri · Slashingdrawn by Filip Zadina2 min
  • 16:57NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau · High stickingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalNYI goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Larkin, 2nd 10:32 — DET 57% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.24M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.24M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.20M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.15R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.14L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.14G. Lindstrom · On goal · xG 0.12L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rasmussen · Goal · xG 0.11T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.10T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.09D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.09L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.09F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.08F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.08F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.08D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.07V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.07T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.06F. Zadina · Missed · xG 0.06F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.06D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.06D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.05A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.05T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.04F. Zadina · Missed · xG 0.04P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.03S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.03M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.03M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.03F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.03R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.03F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.02F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.02F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oesterle · Missed · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.01G. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.00A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.00L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.00M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00
DET2 G · 3.1 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsDET
2.91 G
All situations
2 G3.1
2.31 G
Even strength
1 G2.3
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI48%52%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.89 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsDET
34
Shots on goal
39
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
15
Hits
8
13
Blocked shots
15
7
Giveaways
3
1
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8N. DobsonD011030.20030—23:11
3A. PelechD000000.00220—21:43
29B. NelsonC011+100.000005020:48
12J. BaileyR000+110.11030—20:12
33Z. CharaD000-100.00300—19:20
24S. MayfieldD000000.00232—18:09
18A. BeauvillierR000040.38000—17:35
4A. GreeneD000010.03100—17:02
44J. PageauC000-130.291125816:45
2R. SaloD000000.02010—16:19
26O. WahlstromR000+150.68100—15:14
53C. CizikasC000030.060003614:31
21K. PalmieriC000030.23002014:25
11Z. PariseL000020.0300010014:00
27A. LeeL101050.460005013:53
15C. ClutterbuckR000020.15200—13:24
17M. MartinL000000.192005011:10
20K. BellowsL000020.11100—09:28
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(L)39372.9493.07+1.0757:57

Season series

DET leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).