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Islanders at Sabres
NHL

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

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New York Islanders
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV MSG+ 2, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New York Islanders 4-2. The Sabres came back from two goals down. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 15:56 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.0 to 1.9; shots on goal were NYI 36, BUF 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 36 of 39 (.923); Michael Houser stopped 34 of 36 (.944). Three stars: 1. Michael Houser (34 saves, .944), 2. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Sam Reinhart (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    M. Houser34 saves, .944
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    S. Reinhart2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI111110015236
BUFBUF09114317440

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    A. Pelech(4)
    J. Bailey (25), A. Beauvillier (11)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:15

2nd period

  1. NYI
    O. Wahlstrom(11)
    A. Pelech (9), K. Palmieri (11)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +18 pts
    2-0
    10:42
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(7)PPG
    J. Bryson (8), R. Ristolainen (11)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    14:04

3rd period

  1. BUF
    R. Asplund(7)
    S. Reinhart (15), T. Thompson (5)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +34 pts
    2-2
    11:25
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(24)
    R. Ristolainen (12)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +40 pts
    2-3
    15:56
  3. BUF
    S. Reinhart(25)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.51win prob +2 pts
    2-4
    19:08

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 1:34NYILeo Komarov · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 16:29NYILeo Komarov · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

2nd

  • 12:32NYIScott Mayfield · Interferencedrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 15:44BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Trippingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNYI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, 3rd 15:56 — BUF 52% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.51V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.18J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.18D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.16T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.15R. Asplund · Goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.12T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.08A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.08C. Eakin · Missed · xG 0.06C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.06A. Ruotsalainen · On goal · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.06A. Bjork · Missed · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.03W. Borgen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Bjork · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ruotsalainen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ruotsalainen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ruotsalainen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.0 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsBUF
1.92 G
All situations
3 G3.0
1.32 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
0.50 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI39%61%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.94 – 2.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsBUF
36
Shots on goal
40
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
20
Hits
13
4
Blocked shots
15
11
Giveaways
4
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6R. PulockD000+150.19120—22:41
2N. LeddyD000-310.02000—21:58
3A. PelechD112+220.04100—20:33
29B. NelsonC000-130.530004719:54
12J. BaileyR011-120.0300010019:36
24S. MayfieldD000-140.07012—19:34
8N. DobsonD000-120.03110—17:08
18A. BeauvillierR011+120.08000—16:46
13M. BarzalC000-210.180004416:09
4A. GreeneD000000.00000—16:02
53C. CizikasC000020.254006915:21
14T. ZajacC000+120.132005014:26
15C. ClutterbuckR000010.03400—14:22
7J. EberleR000-210.02100—12:48
26O. WahlstromR101+130.11300—12:42
21K. PalmieriC011+120.18000012:32
47L. KomarovR000-110.02104—11:48
17M. MartinL000-120.04200—11:40
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(L)39363.9232.54-0.4658:28

Season series

NYI leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).