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Avalanche at Golden Knights
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Vegas Golden Knights
▸5
FinalTV NBCSN·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-2. The Golden Knights scored first and never trailed. The Golden Knights led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Max Pacioretty's goal at 0:55 of the third period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 75% to 91%. Expected goals were close — COL 3.3, VGK 3.1; shots on goal were COL 37, VGK 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Devan Dubnyk stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.6 goals below expected; Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Max Pacioretty (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mark Stone (1 G, 2 A), 3. Marc-Andre Fleury (35 saves, .946).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    M. Pacioretty2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    VGK
    M. Stone1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    M. Fleury35 saves, .946

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL112113012237
VGKVGK1112629526

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. VGK
    W. Karlsson(13)
    A. Pietrangelo (13), A. Martinez (20)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:10
  2. COL
    D. Toews(7)
    C. Soderberg (9)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    13:43

2nd period

  1. VGK
    M. Pacioretty(23)PPG
    S. Theodore (34), M. Stone (36)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    9:36
  2. VGK
    M. Stone(19)
    C. Stephenson (18), M. Pacioretty (26)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    14:39
  3. COL
    R. Graves(2)
    N. MacKinnon (42)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    17:06

3rd period

  1. VGK
    M. Pacioretty(24)
    M. Stone (37)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    2-4
    0:55
  2. VGK
    J. Marchessault(14)EN
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.44win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    18:41

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·VGK 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:54COLLiam O'Brien · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Coghlan2 min
  • 4:44COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare · Trippingdrawn by Alex Pietrangelo2 min
  • 15:06VGKAlec Martinez · Interferencedrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 17:39COLNazem Kadri · High stickingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min

2nd

  • 0:09VGKReilly Smith · Hookingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 9:22COLSamuel Girard · Holding the stickdrawn by Reilly Smith2 min
  • 18:25VGKZach Whitecloud · Slashingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

3rd

  • 7:34VGKChandler Stephenson · Roughingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalCOL goalFinal: VGK 100%

Biggest swing: Max Pacioretty, 3rd 0:55 — VGK 75% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Marchessault · Goal · xG 0.44M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.23M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.19C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.17C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.15W. Karlsson · Goal · xG 0.15J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.15D. Sikura · On goal · xG 0.14D. Coghlan · On goal · xG 0.12M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.12M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.12A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.11S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.10R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.08M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.07R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.07M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.05W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.05M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.04S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.04M. Pacioretty · Goal · xG 0.04S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.03S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.03W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.03M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.03M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.03M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.03M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pietrangelo · Missed · xG 0.02B. McNabb · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · Goal · xG 0.02W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.02A. Martinez · Missed · xG 0.01S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.00
VGK5 G · 3.1 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsVGK
3.32 G
All situations
4 G3.1
2.22 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.90 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL64%36%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.25 – 2.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsVGK
37
Shots on goal
26
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/4
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
34
Hits
16
9
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
7
6
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-120.06200—25:08
29N. MacKinnonC011-160.520004323:38
92G. LandeskogL000030.405005723:25
7D. ToewsD101-130.27100—22:14
49S. GirardD000-100.07222—22:12
95A. BurakovskyL000-230.32000—21:04
37J. CompherL000+110.121205019:12
13V. NichushkinR000-210.15310—18:55
91N. KadriC000-230.320025518:35
17T. JostC000-220.2601010016:57
27R. GravesD101+240.26100—16:43
34C. SoderbergC011050.223103315:07
24P. NemethD000-100.00200—14:46
44K. SherwoodL000+140.31810—10:26
22C. TimminsD000-100.00000—10:07
41P. BellemareL000000.001025009:00
61M. KautR000-100.00310—05:22
38L. O'BrienC000000.00202003:57
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40D. Dubnyk(L)25214.8402.42-1.5856:58

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).