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Red Wings at Predators
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸4
Nashville Predators
2
FinalTV FS-D, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Nashville Predators 4-2. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Adam Erne's goal at 12:24 of the first period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 60% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.2 to 1.4; shots on goal were DET 30, NSH 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 21 of 23 (.913), 0.6 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Robby Fabbri (1 G, 1 A), 2. Luke Glendening (1 G, 2 A), 3. Dylan Larkin.

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    R. Fabbri1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    L. Glendening1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    D. Larkin

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET2911516430
NSHNSH0604213223

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    R. Fabbri(4)
    V. Filppula (1), F. Hronek (8)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:59
  2. DET
    A. Erne(1)
    L. Glendening (1)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    12:24

2nd period

  1. DET
    L. Glendening(1)
    R. Fabbri (1), T. Stecher (4)
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +9 pts
    3-0
    17:22

3rd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(7)
    M. Duchene (5), D. Fabbro (3)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +5 pts
    3-1
    7:57
  2. DET
    A. Mantha(5)
    L. Glendening (2), F. Hronek (9)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +2 pts
    4-1
    14:56
  3. NSH
    R. Grimaldi(3)
    D. Fabbro (4), R. Ellis (5)
    wristxG 0.09
    4-2
    19:13

Penalties

DET 4 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 19:57DETPatrik Nemeth · High stickingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min

2nd

  • 7:23NSHDante Fabbro · Holdingdrawn by Bobby Ryan2 min
  • 11:56DETPatrik Nemeth · Trippingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min
  • 13:00NSHserved by N. Cousins · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 19:40NSHRoman Josi · Cross checkingdrawn by Sam Gagner2 min

3rd

  • 16:03NSHMatt Benning · Roughingdrawn by Filip Zadina2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDET goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Adam Erne, 1st 12:24 — DET 60% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.16M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.10R. Grimaldi · Goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.06E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.04R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tinordi · Missed · xG 0.03L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.02M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.02R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01J. Tinordi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.01
NSH2 G · 1.4 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsNSH
2.24 G
All situations
2 G1.4
1.64 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET68%32%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.21 – 1.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsNSH
30
Shots on goal
23
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
13
Hits
19
12
Blocked shots
14
5
Giveaways
11
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17F. HronekD022+100.00200—23:31
24J. MerrillD000020.07010—21:52
71D. LarkinC000-180.270006419:06
14R. FabbriC112+310.161004018:17
70T. StecherD011+110.01200—18:08
18M. StaalD000000.00000—18:07
11F. ZadinaR000040.351005016:55
22P. NemethD000+210.03434—16:47
39A. ManthaR101+330.0902010016:33
54B. RyanR000010.16000—16:11
44C. DjoosD000000.06010—16:08
41L. GlendeningC123+330.111006715:43
92V. NamestnikovC000-120.281202915:27
51V. FilppulaC011-100.1700010015:22
81F. NielsenC000+100.03010013:10
89S. GagnerC000020.380005013:02
73A. ErneL101020.07110—10:55
86M. BromeL000-100.00010—10:54
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(W)23212.9131.36-0.6459:52

Season series

NSH leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).