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Red Wings at Predators
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
2
Nashville Predators
▸3
FinalTV FS-D+, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dante Fabbro's goal at 19:00 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 52% to 98%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.0 to 1.9; shots on goal were DET 26, NSH 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 20 of 23 (.870); Pekka Rinne stopped 24 of 26 (.923). Three stars: 1. Dante Fabbro (1 G), 2. Roman Josi (2 A), 3. Ryan Ellis (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    D. Fabbro1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Josi2 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. Ellis1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET1911007226
NSHNSH181718323

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Ellis(2)PPG
    F. Forsberg (6), R. Josi (5)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    14:58
  2. DET
    R. Fabbri(3)
    A. Mantha (4), F. Hronek (7)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    19:25

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Duchene(3)
    C. Jarnkrok (2), R. Josi (6)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +23 pts
    1-2
    19:19
  2. DET
    M. Staal(2)
    B. Ryan (4), V. Namestnikov (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    19:33

3rd period

  1. NSH
    D. Fabbro(2)
    L. Kunin (1), F. Forsberg (7)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +46 pts
    2-3
    19:00

Penalties

DET 8 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 12:13NSHDante Fabbro · Trippingdrawn by Robby Fabbri2 min
  • 14:21DETBobby Ryan · Trippingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

2nd

  • 4:07NSHJarred Tinordi · Trippingdrawn by Troy Stecher2 min
  • 9:17DETGivani Smith · Interferencedrawn by Matt Benning2 min

3rd

  • 0:51NSHMikael Granlund · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 2:59DETMathias Brome · Hookingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 6:12DETRobby Fabbri · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min
  • 13:44NSHYakov Trenin · Hookingdrawn by Christian Djoos2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDET goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Dante Fabbro, 3rd 19:00 — NSH 52% → 98%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.38C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.24M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.22R. Ellis · Goal · xG 0.20E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.17R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.17M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.15M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.11R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.10L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.07N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.05E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.05N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.04E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.04R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.03M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.03R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · Goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.02E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01
NSH3 G · 3.0 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsNSH
1.92 G
All situations
3 G3.0
1.62 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET37%63%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.91 – 2.57

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsNSH
26
Shots on goal
23
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/4
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
12
Hits
15
14
Blocked shots
16
6
Giveaways
5
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17F. HronekD011020.06200—23:40
71D. LarkinC000-150.300105022:40
18M. StaalD101+110.04130—19:56
39A. ManthaR011040.53110—19:30
24J. MerrillD000-100.03030—19:23
92V. NamestnikovC011+120.030105018:48
14R. FabbriC101+220.102021118:47
44C. DjoosD000000.02020—18:06
11F. ZadinaR000010.03010—17:04
86M. BromeL000-130.22002—16:53
54B. RyanR011+130.18002—16:50
22P. NemethD000000.01010—15:26
70T. StecherD000020.03010—15:08
89S. GagnerC000000.000005015:03
81F. NielsenC000-200.3020010011:32
73A. ErneL000000.001006711:12
48G. SmithR000010.03302—08:30
43D. HelmC000000.00000005:46
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29T. Greiss(L)23203.8702.57-0.4359:09

Season series

NSH leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).