Flyers at Islanders 1-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Philadelphia Flyers

New York Islanders

▸3

FinalTV NBCSN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Philadelphia Flyers 3-1. The Flyers scored first; the Islanders answered. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Leo Komarov's goal at 19:54 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.7 to 1.9; shots on goal were PHI 27, NYI 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Carter Hart stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Semyon Varlamov stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jordan Eberle (2 A), 2. Adam Pelech, 3. Tyler Pitlick (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Eberle2 A
★★
A. Pelech
★★★
T. Pitlick1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	19	06	012	127
NYI	010	215	14	329

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

T. Pitlick(2)
S. Laughton (3), M. Niskanen (1)
wristxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
1-0
14:18

2nd period

M. Martin(3)
M. Barzal (7), J. Eberle (4)
wristxG 0.23win prob +18 pts
1-1
7:12
L. Komarov(1)
D. Brassard (4)
backhandxG 0.07win prob +23 pts
1-2
19:54

3rd period

A. Lee(6)PPG
J. Eberle (5), R. Pulock (6)
backhandxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
1-3
3:41

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

3rd

2:28Robert Hagg · Slashingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
6:43Robert Hagg · Slashingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
15:50Anders Lee · Playing without a helmet2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

100%

Biggest swing: Leo Komarov, 2nd 19:54 — NYI 53% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.9 xG · 45 att NYI

3 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.91 G
All situations: 3 G2.7; 1.21 G
Even strength: 2 G2.6; 0.70 G
Power play: 1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

36%64%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.89 – 2.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 29; 51%
Faceoffs: 49%; 0/1
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 33
Hits: 36; 14
Blocked shots: 18; 9
Giveaways: 13; 5
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Philadelphia Flyers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
9I. ProvorovD	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	0	0	0	—	24:42
15M. NiskanenD	0	1	1	0	1	0.07	4	2	0	—	24:15
6T. SanheimD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.03	2	0	0	—	23:52
5P. MyersD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.06	3	1	0	—	20:33
28C. GirouxR	0	0	0	-1	3	0.14	1	0	0	44	19:46
14S. CouturierC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.27	2	0	0	53	19:45
13K. HayesR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	0	0	0	44	18:41
93J. VoracekR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	0	0	0	—	17:40
11T. KonecnyR	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	1	0	0	—	17:18
25J. van RiemsdykL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.29	2	1	0	—	15:29
49J. FarabeeL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.19	1	1	0	—	14:55
61J. BraunD	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	0	1	0	—	14:24
18T. PitlickC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.23	2	4	0	0	13:46
21S. LaughtonC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.12	2	0	0	50	12:58
8R. HaggD	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	3	3	4	—	12:19
62N. Aube-KubelR	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	6	1	0	—	10:35
38D. GrantC	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	3	0	0	0	10:02
44N. ThompsonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	1	0	0	75	09:57

Philadelphia Flyers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
79C. Hart(L)	29	26	3	.897	2.73	-0.27	55:50

Series

NYI leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

3rd

Box score