Flames at Blackhawks 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Calgary Flames

▸2

Chicago Blackhawks

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Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Chicago Blackhawks 2-1. The Blackhawks scored first; the Flames answered. The Flames led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Elias Lindholm's goal at 16:01 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.3 to 1.8; shots on goal were CGY 28, CHI 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Corey Crawford stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Elias Lindholm (2 G), 2. Dominik Kubalik (1 G), 3. Cam Talbot (31 saves, .969).

Three stars

★
E. Lindholm2 G
★★
D. Kubalik1 G
★★★
C. Talbot31 saves, .969

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	06	214	08	228
CHI	114	012	06	132

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

D. Kubalik(13)
A. Boqvist (4), P. Kane (31)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
0-1
19:28

2nd period

E. Lindholm(17)
M. Tkachuk (22), T. Brodie (13)
wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
1-1
0:14
E. Lindholm(18)
M. Tkachuk (23)
slapxG 0.06win prob +22 pts
2-1
16:01

Penalties

4 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

3:54Noah Hanifin · High stickingdrawn by Jonathan Toews2 min

2nd

10:52served by J. Quenneville · Too many men on the ice2 min
11:47Zack Smith · High stickingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

3rd

2:08Erik Gustafsson · Trippingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min
2:51Zack Smith · Slashingdrawn by Derek Ryan2 min
13:22Travis Hamonic · Hookingdrawn by Jonathan Toews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CHI

Biggest swing: Elias Lindholm, 2nd 16:01 — CGY 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.8 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att CHI

1 G · 1.8 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.32 G
All situations: 1 G1.8; 1.42 G
Even strength: 1 G1.5; 0.90 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

60%40%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.30 – 1.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

28
Shots on goal: 32; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 0/4
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 8; 32
Hits: 24; 13
Blocked shots: 18; 12
Giveaways: 14; 12
Takeaways: 11

Box score

every player line

Calgary Flames skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
5M. GiordanoD	0	0	0	0	4	0.05	0	3	0	—	24:30
7T. BrodieD	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	—	22:14
24T. HamonicD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.09	4	1	2	—	20:55
28E. LindholmC	2	0	2	+1	2	0.14	1	1	0	25	19:55
55N. HanifinD	0	0	0	+1	4	0.08	1	3	2	—	19:47
13J. GaudreauL	0	0	0	0	5	0.29	0	0	0	—	19:45
23S. MonahanC	0	0	0	0	2	0.56	2	0	0	50	19:44
11M. BacklundC	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	2	0	0	0	19:10
19M. TkachukL	0	2	2	+1	4	0.49	2	1	0	—	18:52
10D. RyanC	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	0	2	0	61	17:51
4R. AnderssonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	0	—	16:10
29D. DubeC	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	4	0	0	0	14:57
17M. LucicL	0	0	0	+2	0	0.06	3	0	0	33	14:43
58O. KylingtonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:09
93S. BennettC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	0	10:38
77M. JankowskiL	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	0	1	0	50	09:22
88A. MangiapaneL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.16	1	0	0	100	07:43
36Z. RinaldoC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	7	0	0	0	07:24

Calgary Flames goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
39C. Talbot(W)	32	31	1	.969	1.78	+0.78	59:11

Season series

CHI leads 2-1

Dec 315@3Final
Jan 72@1this game
Feb 158@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score