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Sabres at Lightning
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV SUN, MSG-B·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Lightning led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Yanni Gourde's goal at 9:26 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.7 to 3.0; shots on goal were BUF 30, TBL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.1 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ondrej Palat (1 G, 2 A), 2. Ryan McDonagh (2 A), 3. Cedric Paquette (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    O. Palat1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    R. McDonagh2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    C. Paquette1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11111603230
TBLTBL1925215529

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(8)
    O. Palat (6)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:13
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(9)
    V. Olofsson (10), J. Eichel (16)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    3:40

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Vesey(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.22win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    1:48
  2. TBL
    M. Sergachev(2)PPG
    O. Palat (7), K. Shattenkirk (12)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    7:20
  3. TBL
    Y. Gourde(6)
    R. McDonagh (6), P. Maroon (5)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    9:26

3rd period

  1. TBL
    C. Paquette(3)SHG
    A. Cirelli (10), R. McDonagh (7)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    2-4
    8:17
  2. TBL
    O. Palat(8)SHG
    M. Joseph (3)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +5 pts
    2-5
    9:06

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·TBL 8 PIM

1st

  • 16:02BUFCarter Hutton · Trippingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

2nd

  • 2:56TBLNikita Kucherov · High stickingdrawn by Colin Miller2 min
  • 5:34BUFJohan Larsson · High stickingdrawn by Tyler Johnson2 min
  • 12:08TBLYanni Gourde · High stickingdrawn by Colin Miller2 min
  • 17:07TBLAlex Killorn · Trippingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min
  • 20:00BUFJohan Larsson · Holdingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min

3rd

  • 6:13BUFMarco Scandella · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 8:07TBLKevin Shattenkirk · Trippingdrawn by Jimmy Vesey2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalBUF goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Yanni Gourde, 2nd 9:26 — TBL 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.22B. Point · On goal · xG 0.21T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.20O. Palat · Goal · xG 0.16C. Paquette · Goal · xG 0.15C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.13B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.11A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.08B. Point · Missed · xG 0.08C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.08B. Point · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.08B. Point · On goal · xG 0.08Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.08T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.06M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.06C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.05Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL5 G · 3.0 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTBL
3.72 G
All situations
5 G3.0
1.72 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
0.80 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.30 G
Shorthanded
2 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF46%54%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.76 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTBL
30
Shots on goal
29
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/4
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
14
Hits
23
12
Blocked shots
12
3
Giveaways
6
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9J. EichelC011-240.140104122:57
68V. OlofssonL011-131.18000—22:56
23S. ReinhartC101-210.33000022:51
13J. VeseyL101+130.46000—18:59
4Z. BogosianD000+100.00320—18:45
53J. SkinnerL000-240.280003318:13
62B. MontourD000-210.09110—18:05
37C. MittelstadtC000050.500102517:03
55R. RistolainenD000-110.04100—16:55
6M. ScandellaD000-110.01012—16:33
10H. JokiharjuD000000.05010—16:24
43C. ShearyL000010.15000—15:26
33C. MillerD000010.08120—14:55
28Z. GirgensonsC000-130.292008013:47
22J. LarssonL000-100.062244312:11
26R. DahlinD000000.00000—11:23
74R. AsplundC000+120.04100009:21
27C. LazarC000000.00310009:04
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)29245.8282.92-2.0857:56

Season series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).