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Lightning at Sabres
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV NBCSN, SN1·Ericsson Globe

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 15:43 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 14% to 31%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 0.8 to 0.4; shots on goal were TBL 34, BUF 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 22 (.909), 1.6 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (1 G), 2. Sam Reinhart (2 G), 3. Victor Hedman (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    S. Reinhart2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    V. Hedman1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL21301318334
BUFBUF091518222

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(5)
    B. Point (7), K. Shattenkirk (7)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:19
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(3)PPG
    V. Hedman (8), S. Stamkos (9)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    16:14

2nd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(6)
    R. Ristolainen (6), J. McCabe (4)
    tip-inxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    15:43

3rd period

  1. TBL
    Y. Gourde(3)
    P. Maroon (3), C. Paquette (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    7:45
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(7)
    H. Jokiharju (5), V. Olofsson (5)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    3-2
    11:30

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 15:20BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 18:55TBLErik Cernak · Interferencedrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

2nd

  • 5:50BUFJake McCabe · High stickingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

3rd

  • 4:26BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Interferencedrawn by Alexander Volkov2 min
  • 4:26TBLOndrej Palat · Roughingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 4:26BUFJeff Skinner · Roughingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 7:49TBLYanni Gourde · High stickingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 14:12BUFJack Eichel · Trippingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTBL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, 2nd 15:43 — BUF 14% → 31%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.03J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.00J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.00J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.00J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.00J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.00B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.00B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.00M. Johansson · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 0.4 xG · 28 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsBUF
0.83 G
All situations
2 G0.4
0.42 G
Even strength
2 G0.3
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL62%38%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 0.81 – 0.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsBUF
34
Shots on goal
22
69%
Faceoffs
31%
1/4
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
10
18
Hits
29
10
Blocked shots
9
8
Giveaways
4
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011+120.03010—25:47
86N. KucherovR101+130.05100—21:23
22K. ShattenkirkD011+140.04110—20:54
27R. McDonaghD000010.00230—19:51
21B. PointC011+120.100008818:50
81E. CernakD000040.02102—17:42
17A. KillornL101030.14100—17:07
98M. SergachevD000-100.00120—16:05
9T. JohnsonC000+110.011005015:44
91S. StamkosC011-220.020105715:41
2L. SchennD000-100.00310—15:25
71A. CirelliC000010.021006714:49
18O. PalatL000-210.01202—14:14
37Y. GourdeC101+120.1300210013:34
13C. PaquetteC011+140.041105013:13
14P. MaroonL011+130.19000—13:01
7M. JosephR000000.01000—11:59
92A. VolkovR000-210.01300—10:36
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)22202.9090.44-1.5660:00

Season series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).