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Sabres at Lightning
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV NHLN, SUN·Ericsson Globe

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The Sabres scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Patrick Maroon's goal at 19:57 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 75% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.0 to 0.9; shots on goal were BUF 43, TBL 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 35 of 40 (.875), 3.4 goals below expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 40 of 43 (.930), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Patrick Maroon (2 G), 2. Yanni Gourde (1 G, 1 A), 3. Victor Olofsson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    P. Maroon2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    V. Olofsson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF117013213343
TBLTBL112218210540

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(8)
    M. Johansson (6), B. Montour (1)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:30
  2. TBL
    P. Maroon(2)PPG
    Y. Gourde (4), K. Shattenkirk (8)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    17:02

2nd period

  1. TBL
    V. Hedman(3)PPG
    S. Stamkos (10), N. Kucherov (8)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    1:58
  2. TBL
    P. Maroon(3)
    C. Paquette (2), K. Shattenkirk (9)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    19:57

3rd period

  1. BUF
    V. Olofsson(7)
    J. Eichel (11), S. Reinhart (7)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    4:14
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(4)
    C. Paquette (3)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
    2-4
    9:48
  3. TBL
    M. Joseph(4)
    A. Killorn (5), A. Cirelli (6)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +3 pts
    2-5
    10:55
  4. BUF
    J. Eichel(8)
    R. Ristolainen (7), R. Dahlin (11)
    wristxG 0.10
    3-5
    19:22

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·TBL 16 PIM

1st

  • 10:40TBLNikita Kucherov · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min
  • 15:07BUFBrandon Montour · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

2nd

  • 1:51BUFMarcus Johansson · Interferencedrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min
  • 14:43BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Interferencedrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min

3rd

  • 16:14TBLCedric Paquette · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Marcus Johansson2 min
  • 16:14TBLCedric Paquette · Game misconductdrawn by Marcus Johansson10 min
  • 17:59TBLErik Cernak · Roughingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 17:59BUFSam Reinhart · Roughingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalBUF goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Patrick Maroon, 2nd 19:57 — TBL 75% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.47S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.20P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.14Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.10M. Joseph · Goal · xG 0.10P. Maroon · Goal · xG 0.09P. Maroon · Goal · xG 0.07V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.06T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.06T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.06B. Point · On goal · xG 0.05B. Point · Missed · xG 0.05K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.04P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Point · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.02C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.02M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.02P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.01S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.01O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.01A. Volkov · Missed · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01A. Volkov · Missed · xG 0.01O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.01K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.01S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.00A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.00E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.00E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.00S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.00E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.00Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.00A. Volkov · On goal · xG 0.00V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL5 G · 2.0 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTBL
0.93 G
All situations
5 G2.0
0.53 G
Even strength
3 G0.8
0.40 G
Power play
2 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 112 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF34%66%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 0.90 – 1.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTBL
43
Shots on goal
40
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/2
Power play
2/3
8
Penalty minutes
16
19
Hits
12
5
Blocked shots
18
5
Giveaways
5
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD011-150.06312—23:59
9J. EichelC112030.151005022:27
68V. OlofssonL101070.26000—21:34
26R. DahlinD011+100.03200—21:30
19J. McCabeD000-220.01020—21:16
23S. ReinhartC112-110.01202020:28
90M. JohanssonL011030.103026319:46
53J. SkinnerL000040.11000—17:47
62B. MontourD011040.03112—17:34
33C. MillerD000+120.02100—17:02
10H. JokiharjuD000+120.01000—15:43
37C. MittelstadtC000000.00000014:20
22J. LarssonL000+100.002003613:12
13J. VeseyL000040.08000—12:42
71E. RodriguesC000030.020006012:08
43C. ShearyL000+110.01010—10:01
21K. OkposoR000020.01100—09:12
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.003005008:59
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)40355.8751.58-3.4256:18

Season series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).