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Senators at Red Wings
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
2
Detroit Red Wings
▸3
FinalTV FS-D, TSN5·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Ottawa Senators 3-2. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Frans Nielsen's goal at 17:00 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals were close — OTT 2.2, DET 2.3; shots on goal were OTT 42, DET 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Anders Nilsson stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.7 goals below expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 40 of 42 (.952). Three stars: 1. Andreas Athanasiou (2 G), 2. Jimmy Howard (40 saves, .952), 3. Matt Duchene (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    A. Athanasiou2 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    J. Howard40 saves, .952
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Duchene1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT114116012242
DETDET2141906329

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    A. Athanasiou(19)
    A. Mantha (10), D. Larkin (30)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    10:44
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(13)
    C. White (18), T. Chabot (33)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    16:24
  3. DET
    A. Athanasiou(20)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.23win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    17:42

2nd period

  1. OTT
    M. Duchene(26)
    R. Balcers (3), C. Tierney (32)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    13:39
  2. DET
    F. Nielsen(9)
    D. Helm (8)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +22 pts
    2-3
    17:00

Penalties

OTT 13 PIM·DET 11 PIM

1st

  • 6:30DETJonathan Ericsson · Fightingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk5 min
  • 6:30OTTBrady Tkachuk · Fightingdrawn by Jonathan Ericsson5 min
  • 17:42OTTChristian Jaros · Ps holding on breakawaydrawn by Andreas Athanasiou0 min

2nd

  • 8:28OTTRudolfs Balcers · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 2:27DETJustin Abdelkader · Roughingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min
  • 2:27OTTMark Stone · Roughingdrawn by Niklas Kronwall2 min
  • 5:18DETMichael Rasmussen · Roughingdrawn by Dylan DeMelo2 min
  • 5:18OTTDylan DeMelo · Roughingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min
  • 8:19DETTrevor Daley · Hookingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min
  • 10:43OTTBrady Tkachuk · Trippingdrawn by Trevor Daley2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalOTT goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Frans Nielsen, 2nd 17:00 — DET 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Athanasiou · Goal · xG 0.23A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.17D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.17M. Green · On goal · xG 0.15F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.09A. Athanasiou · Goal · xG 0.09F. Nielsen · Goal · xG 0.09M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.09L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.08D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.08D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.08J. Ericsson · On goal · xG 0.08T. Vanek · Missed · xG 0.08A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.06T. Vanek · On goal · xG 0.05L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.05D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.05F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.05L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.05F. Nielsen · Missed · xG 0.05D. DeKeyser · Missed · xG 0.04A. Athanasiou · Missed · xG 0.04G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.03J. Abdelkader · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.03F. Nielsen · Missed · xG 0.03A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.03A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.03J. Abdelkader · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.02C. Ehn · Missed · xG 0.02N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.02M. Green · On goal · xG 0.02M. Green · On goal · xG 0.02T. Daley · Missed · xG 0.01M. Green · Missed · xG 0.01G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.01F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.01A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.00D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.00D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 2.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsDET
2.22 G
All situations
3 G2.3
1.92 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT48%52%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.21 – 2.32

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsDET
42
Shots on goal
29
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/1
Power play
0/2
13
Penalty minutes
11
17
Hits
20
17
Blocked shots
17
8
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD011+150.07120—26:49
5C. CeciD000-140.03050—26:40
95M. DucheneC101+140.220004222:17
61M. StoneR000040.46302—21:18
36C. WhiteC011030.230005618:36
15Z. SmithC000-110.081106717:12
58M. LajoieD000-100.03200—16:40
18R. DzingelC000010.01020016:23
67B. HarpurD000010.01400—16:11
9B. RyanR000020.05120—15:33
2D. DeMeloD000+120.07102—14:41
44J. PageauC000-120.141105614:19
56M. PaajarviL000-120.06010—13:13
71C. TierneyC011000.000106313:00
83C. JarosD000000.00300—12:33
7B. TkachukL101+160.450175012:24
38R. BalcersL011+140.32012—09:31
28C. GoloubefD000010.02000—06:14
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Nilsson(L)29263.8972.32-0.6858:26

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).