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Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils

FinalTV FS-CR, MSG·Prudential Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New Jersey Devils beat the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2. The Devils scored first and never trailed. The Devils led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dougie Hamilton's goal at 7:22 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 14% to 29%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.6 to 1.8; shots on goal were CAR 35, NJD 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.2 goals below expected; Keith Kinkaid stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Nico Hischier (3 A), 2. Keith Kinkaid (33 saves, .943), 3. Marcus Johansson (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NJD
    N. Hischier3 A
  2. ★★
    NJD
    K. Kinkaid33 saves, .943
  3. ★★★
    NJD
    M. Johansson2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR0918118235
NJDNJD2802111321

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NJD
    P. Zacha(10)PPG
    snapxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    11:35
  2. NJD
    snapxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    19:03

2nd period

  1. CAR
    snapxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    7:22

3rd period

  1. NJD
    snapxG 0.15win prob +9 pts
    1-3
    15:56
  2. CAR
    snapxG 0.22win prob +5 pts
    2-3
    18:33

Penalties

CAR 15 PIM·NJD 17 PIM

1st

  • 1:05NJDKurtis Gabriel · Fightingdrawn by Micheal Ferland5 min
  • 1:05CARMicheal Ferland · Fightingdrawn by Kurtis Gabriel5 min
  • 5:34NJDDamon Severson · Holdingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min
  • 7:06NJDPavel Zacha · Holdingdrawn by Lucas Wallmark2 min
  • 9:59CARBrett Pesce · Holdingdrawn by Jesper Bratt2 min
  • 16:00NJDKurtis Gabriel · Interferencedrawn by Lucas Wallmark2 min

2nd

  • 3:43CARJustin Faulk · High stickingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min
  • 19:20NJDDrew Stafford · Holdingdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min

3rd

  • 1:43NJDDrew Stafford · Hookingdrawn by Brock McGinn2 min
  • 1:43CARBrock McGinn · Embellishment2 min
  • 3:21CARDougie Hamilton · Trippingdrawn by Jesper Bratt2 min
  • 7:06CARNino Niederreiter · Interferencedrawn by Damon Severson2 min
  • 17:04NJDKurtis Gabriel · Trippingdrawn by Greg McKegg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NJD goalCAR goalFinal: NJD 100%

Biggest swing: Dougie Hamilton, 2nd 7:22 — CAR 14% → 29%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Rooney · On goal · xG 0.21M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.16M. Johansson · Goal · xG 0.15P. Zacha · Goal · xG 0.14J. Bratt · On goal · xG 0.14A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.12K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.12N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.11N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.10K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.08N. Lappin · Missed · xG 0.08K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.08K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.05W. Butcher · On goal · xG 0.04K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.04M. Johansson · Goal · xG 0.04K. Rooney · Missed · xG 0.03T. Zajac · On goal · xG 0.03A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bratt · On goal · xG 0.02R. Murphy · Missed · xG 0.02M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Mueller · On goal · xG 0.00A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.00M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.00
NJD3 G · 1.8 xG · 27 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNJD
3.62 G
All situations
3 G1.8
1.81 G
Even strength
2 G1.0
1.61 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR79%21%NJD

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.57 – 1.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNJD
35
Shots on goal
21
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/5
Power play
1/4
15
Penalty minutes
17
19
Hits
21
9
Blocked shots
15
7
Giveaways
7
8
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
20S. AhoC011030.461003924:40
74J. SlavinD000020.05110—22:42
27J. FaulkD000-140.22332—22:13
14J. WilliamsR011030.460002921:28
86T. TeravainenC101060.97200021:01
19D. HamiltonD101+120.05102—20:02
21N. NiederreiterR022030.68002—19:22
22B. PesceD000-220.02022—18:34
44C. de HaanD000020.04000—16:27
57T. van RiemsdykD000020.06210—14:43
23B. McGinnL000020.3221210014:37
37A. SvechnikovR000000.09300—14:18
71L. WallmarkC000010.020106012:42
79M. FerlandL000010.08105—12:23
48J. MartinookL000000.001005612:05
42G. McKeggC000-110.080002910:20
13W. FoegeleL000-110.02200—09:03
8S. MaenalanenR000-100.00000—07:29
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34P. Mrazek(L)21183.8571.82-1.1856:15

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).