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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Detroit Red Wings
▸3
Final/OTTV FS-D, TSN4·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2 in overtime, Danny DeKeyser scoring at 2:40. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Danny DeKeyser's goal at 2:40 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 4.1 to 2.1; shots on goal were TOR 21, DET 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Dylan Larkin (1 G), 2. Andreas Athanasiou (3 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    A. Athanasiou3 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR05181701221
DETDET0101711214333

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. DET
    G. Nyquist(12)
    A. Athanasiou (14)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +18 pts
    0-1
    8:14
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(22)
    P. Marleau (12)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +22 pts
    1-1
    18:11

3rd period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(22)PPG
    T. Vanek (14), A. Athanasiou (15)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +28 pts
    1-2
    13:31
  2. TOR
    P. Marleau(12)
    A. Matthews (23), M. Rielly (38)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +42 pts
    2-2
    17:41

Overtime

  1. DET
    D. DeKeyser(2)
    G. Nyquist (33), A. Athanasiou (16)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    2:40

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·DET 10 PIM

1st

  • 10:58TORMitch Marner · Holdingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 14:03DETLuke Glendening · Holdingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 18:39DETJacob de la Rose · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Frederik Andersen2 min

2nd

  • 1:27TORPar Lindholm · Holding the stickdrawn by Justin Abdelkader2 min
  • 4:28DETDanny DeKeyser · Slashingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 0:10DETAndreas Athanasiou · Trippingdrawn by Jake Muzzin2 min
  • 3:11TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Andreas Athanasiou2 min
  • 10:40DETGustav Nyquist · Hookingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 12:54TORPatrick Marleau · Hookingdrawn by Justin Abdelkader2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Danny DeKeyser, OT 2:40 — DET 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Vanek · On goal · xG 0.35G. Nyquist · Goal · xG 0.29A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.25D. DeKeyser · Goal · xG 0.23L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.16A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.16L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.15T. Vanek · On goal · xG 0.15J. Abdelkader · On goal · xG 0.15D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.14D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.14F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.13A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.13G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.13M. Green · On goal · xG 0.13D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.12D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.12N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.11D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.11A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.10T. Vanek · On goal · xG 0.09D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.09J. Abdelkader · On goal · xG 0.08G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.06A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.06J. de la Rose · On goal · xG 0.06A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.05A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.05F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.05D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.03A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.03N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Green · Missed · xG 0.02D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cholowski · On goal · xG 0.01D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.01F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.01T. Vanek · On goal · xG 0.00J. Ericsson · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 4.1 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
2.12 G
All situations
3 G4.1
1.62 G
Even strength
2 G3.2
0.50 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR20%80%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.11 – 4.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
21
Shots on goal
33
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
13
Hits
16
8
Blocked shots
13
13
Giveaways
14
2
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011030.15000—28:16
16M. MarnerR000+130.28004—22:34
34A. MatthewsC112+130.370003321:38
24K. KapanenR000-120.14100—19:53
91J. TavaresC000-140.561104719:37
51J. GardinerD000+110.03110—19:16
8J. MuzzinD000000.03020—18:08
2R. HainseyD000+100.02020—17:54
12P. MarleauC112+230.1310210017:19
22N. ZaitsevD000-100.00220—16:19
11Z. HymanL000-100.241006016:06
43N. KadriC000+110.091006015:23
29W. NylanderR000010.070006714:56
28C. BrownR000000.00000—13:05
23T. DermottD000000.00100—13:05
18A. JohnssonL000000.00100—11:13
26P. LindholmC000000.00202009:19
33F. GauthierC000000.001003307:11
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(O)33303.9094.05+1.0561:55

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).