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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
4
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Final/OTTV FS-D, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-4 in overtime, Kasperi Kapanen scoring at 1:53. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 19:52 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 3% to 51%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were DET 30, TOR 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 1.5 goals below expected; Garret Sparks stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kasperi Kapanen (2 G), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 3. Morgan Rielly (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    K. Kapanen2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Rielly1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DETDET213191602430
TORTOR132111812524

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    K. Kapanen(13)
    A. Matthews (15), M. Rielly (31)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:27
  2. DET
    F. Hronek(2)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    3:45
  3. DET
    M. Rasmussen(6)
    D. Larkin (21), N. Jensen (8)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    19:18

2nd period

  1. DET
    C. Ehn(1)
    W. Megan (1)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    9:53
  2. TOR
    F. Gauthier(1)
    P. Lindholm (9), T. Moore (1)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    12:52
  3. TOR
    M. Rielly(13)
    J. Tavares (18), A. Johnsson (9)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +20 pts
    3-3
    14:00

3rd period

  1. DET
    F. Nielsen(7)
    N. Kronwall (9), T. Bertuzzi (11)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +35 pts
    4-3
    12:03
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(24)
    J. Gardiner (20)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +49 pts
    4-4
    19:52

Overtime

  1. TOR
    K. Kapanen(14)
    T. Dermott (8), N. Kadri (15)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +49 pts
    4-5
    1:53

Penalties

DET 4 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:28TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Luke Glendening2 min
  • 12:07TORWilliam Nylander · High stickingdrawn by Jonathan Ericsson2 min
  • 13:38TORMitch Marner · Holding the stickdrawn by Justin Abdelkader2 min

2nd

  • 17:41DETFilip Hronek · Holdingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 5:14DETThomas Vanek · Hookingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 3rd 19:52 — TOR 3% → 51%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.24M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.23A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.22F. Gauthier · Goal · xG 0.19W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.19J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.18K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.17W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.13N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.12A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.11K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.11J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.09K. Kapanen · Goal · xG 0.08M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.08K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.07P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06A. Johnsson · Missed · xG 0.05C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05P. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04K. Kapanen · Goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.03P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.03J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.01J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 3.5 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
2.24 G
All situations
5 G3.5
1.84 G
Even strength
5 G2.6
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET28%72%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.17 – 3.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
30
Shots on goal
24
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
29
Hits
13
9
Blocked shots
8
10
Giveaways
15
8
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
71D. LarkinC011-150.441005023:36
52J. EricssonD000-120.02210—22:55
3N. JensenD011+110.03210—22:02
55N. KronwallD011+100.00110—21:58
14G. NyquistR000-140.44110—21:26
17F. HronekD101030.10102—19:34
59T. BertuzziL011+120.18110—19:31
8J. AbdelkaderL000-410.0121010018:37
51F. NielsenC101+160.522005017:06
41L. GlendeningC000-310.014105517:03
83T. DaleyD000-200.00110—16:26
26T. VanekL000+200.00102—16:17
61J. de la RoseL000+200.051005015:14
21D. CholowskiD000+100.05200—14:21
27M. RasmussenC101030.27300013:56
70C. EhnC101+120.04100010:49
22W. MeganC011+100.001103308:17
28L. WitkowskiD000-100.00200—02:45
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(O)24195.7923.51-1.4961:39

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).