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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
4
Final/OTTV FS-D, SNO·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime, Dylan Larkin scoring at 2:48. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Red Wings led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Larkin's goal at 2:48 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.4 to 3.1; shots on goal were DET 32, TOR 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 0.9 goals below expected; Garret Sparks stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Larkin (1 G, 1 A), 2. Andreas Johnsson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Gustav Nyquist (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Johnsson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    G. Nyquist1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DETDET3111120712532
TORTOR1100531501431

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    K. Kapanen(11)
    J. Gardiner (12), A. Johnsson (5)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:50
  2. DET
    J. Ericsson(2)
    T. Vanek (7)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    5:23
  3. DET
    L. Glendening(4)
    N. Kronwall (5), J. de la Rose (3)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    6:28
  4. DET
    G. Nyquist(7)
    D. Larkin (15), M. Green (13)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    19:46

2nd period

  1. DET
    M. Green(3)
    M. Frk (2), G. Nyquist (18)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +10 pts
    4-1
    11:07

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(18)
    M. Rielly (22), J. Gardiner (13)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +7 pts
    4-2
    2:38
  2. TOR
    Z. Hyman(7)
    I. Ozhiganov (3), M. Marner (34)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    4-3
    8:50
  3. TOR
    A. Johnsson(6)
    A. Matthews (9), K. Kapanen (10)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +34 pts
    4-4
    11:36

Overtime

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(11)
    G. Nyquist (19)
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    2:48

Penalties

DET 8 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 7:17DETJustin Abdelkader · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 16:39DETNick Jensen · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

2nd

  • 8:56TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Nick Jensen2 min
  • 12:33DETNiklas Kronwall · Boardingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 15:36TORPar Lindholm · Trippingdrawn by Jonathan Ericsson2 min
  • 19:19DETNiklas Kronwall · Holdingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Dylan Larkin, OT 2:48 — DET 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.19K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.16Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.16K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.14P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.12Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.12K. Kapanen · Goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.10A. Johnsson · Goal · xG 0.10Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.06T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06P. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.05K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.03J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.03R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.02P. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 3.1 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
3.45 G
All situations
4 G3.1
3.35 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET56%44%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.37 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
32
Shots on goal
31
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/2
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
14
30
Blocked shots
12
10
Giveaways
13
6
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3N. JensenD000-110.02212—25:08
52J. EricssonD101+110.02130—24:35
25M. GreenD112+240.30150—24:24
71D. LarkinC112070.684104022:45
51F. NielsenC000-110.011104420:29
8J. AbdelkaderL000-130.584027519:10
14G. NyquistR123+250.57000—19:03
55N. KronwallD011-100.00164—18:34
41L. GlendeningC101+110.173402917:04
61J. de la RoseL011+100.0023010016:58
72A. AthanasiouC000-220.510003316:31
21D. CholowskiD000020.15010—16:12
26T. VanekL011010.05100—12:59
27M. RasmussenC000+210.03010012:23
28L. WitkowskiD000000.00010—11:33
70C. EhnC000010.21110008:39
22W. MeganC000020.120104307:07
42M. FrkR011+100.00010—07:06
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(W)31274.8713.06-0.9462:32

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).