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Hurricanes at Islanders
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
New York Islanders
3
FinalTV FS-CR, MSG+·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Islanders 4-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Hurricanes led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Justin Williams's goal at 17:18 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 48% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.8 to 2.1; shots on goal were CAR 24, NYI 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Curtis McElhinney stopped 28 of 31 (.903); Thomas Greiss stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Justin Williams (1 G), 2. Curtis McElhinney (28 saves, .903), 3. Brock Nelson (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    J. Williams1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    C. McElhinney28 saves, .903
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    B. Nelson2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR2501029424
NYINYI17012212331

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(14)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    13:42
  2. CAR
    S. Maenalanen(1)
    V. Rask (3), W. Foegele (3)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    15:10
  3. CAR
    G. McKegg(2)
    M. Ferland (8), T. van Riemsdyk (5)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    19:54

3rd period

  1. NYI
    D. Toews(2)
    A. Lee (16), B. Nelson (14)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +27 pts
    2-2
    4:50
  2. CAR
    J. Williams(10)
    G. McKegg (2)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +45 pts
    3-2
    17:18
  3. CAR
    J. Slavin(5)PPG
    D. Hamilton (9), V. Rask (4)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +2 pts
    4-2
    18:53
  4. NYI
    B. Nelson(15)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +3 pts
    4-3
    19:01

Penalties

CAR 6 PIM·NYI 4 PIM

2nd

  • 5:05CARJustin Faulk · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Beauvillier2 min
  • 10:18CARTrevor van Riemsdyk · Trippingdrawn by Matt Martin2 min
  • 17:45NYIMichael Dal Colle · High stickingdrawn by Brett Pesce2 min

3rd

  • 15:03CARJustin Williams · Hookingdrawn by Leo Komarov2 min
  • 17:55NYILeo Komarov · Cross checkingdrawn by Brock McGinn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalCAR goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Justin Williams, 3rd 17:18 — CAR 48% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.28B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.19J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.18A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.14B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.14M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.14C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.13A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.13J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.11M. Dal Colle · On goal · xG 0.11M. Dal Colle · On goal · xG 0.09A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.09A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.08J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.08J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.08A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.08J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.07M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.06D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.05M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.05A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.05B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.04B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.04J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.04B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.03D. Toews · Goal · xG 0.03J. Boychuk · Missed · xG 0.03S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.01L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.01C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.01N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01
NYI3 G · 2.8 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNYI
2.14 G
All situations
3 G2.8
1.63 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR38%62%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.10 – 2.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNYI
24
Shots on goal
31
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
14
Hits
20
13
Blocked shots
11
11
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27J. FaulkD000-120.21202—23:07
44C. de HaanD000-120.17110—21:30
74J. SlavinD101-120.13000—20:26
20S. AhoC000030.180103920:23
22B. PesceD000-100.02120—19:59
86T. TeravainenC000000.00100019:23
57T. van RiemsdykD011+200.01002—17:16
23B. McGinnL000020.12120—17:00
19D. HamiltonD011+210.16200—15:47
14J. WilliamsR101+230.25102—15:41
48J. MartinookL000-210.1910010015:39
79M. FerlandL011+100.00200—15:28
71L. WallmarkC000-100.000305614:59
42G. McKeggC112+110.110106413:18
37A. SvechnikovR000-130.26100—12:34
13W. FoegeleL011010.14010—11:23
49V. RaskC022000.001105010:44
8S. MaenalanenR101030.17010—09:23
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35C. McElhinney(W)31283.9032.80-0.2060:00

Season series

NYI leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).