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Panthers at Sabres
NHL

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV FS-F, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Florida Panthers 4-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 1:20 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 76% to 92%. Expected goals were close — FLA 2.4, BUF 2.6; shots on goal were FLA 38, BUF 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Roberto Luongo stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 2.0 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 35 of 38 (.921), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jeff Skinner (2 G), 2. Tage Thompson (1 G), 3. Aleksander Barkov (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Skinner2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    A. Barkov1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA010113215338
BUFBUF212011210433

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(27)
    S. Reinhart (31)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:42
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(5)
    V. Sobotka (3), C. Sheary (8)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    7:15

2nd period

  1. FLA
    F. Vatrano(11)
    C. Sceviour (6)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    13:42

3rd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(9)
    L. Pilut (4), Z. Bogosian (6)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    1:20
  2. FLA
    M. Hoffman(19)PPG
    A. Barkov (25), J. Huberdeau (35)
    backhandxG 0.25win prob +11 pts
    2-3
    12:15
  3. BUF
    J. Skinner(28)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +8 pts
    2-4
    16:14
  4. FLA
    A. Barkov(16)
    K. Yandle (27), A. Ekblad (8)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +3 pts
    3-4
    18:31

Penalties

FLA 6 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 12:42BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Mike Hoffman2 min

2nd

  • 9:24BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Bogdan Kiselevich2 min
  • 15:59FLAMike Hoffman · Hookingdrawn by Vladimir Sobotka2 min

3rd

  • 5:51FLAMark Pysyk · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 6:26FLAAaron Ekblad · Slashingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 10:33BUFKyle Okposo · Slashingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalFLA goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, 3rd 1:20 — BUF 76% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.48S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.16J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.14C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.12V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.12J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.12R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.11C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.10T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.09J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.06C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.06C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.06R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.05K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.05J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.02V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.02C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01L. Pilut · Missed · xG 0.01M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 2.6 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsBUF
2.43 G
All situations
4 G2.6
1.52 G
Even strength
4 G1.6
0.91 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA56%44%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.30 – 2.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsBUF
38
Shots on goal
33
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
16
9
Blocked shots
18
6
Giveaways
5
1
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3K. YandleD011-150.12200—25:13
16A. BarkovC112+130.310006324:44
5A. EkbladD011030.08002—23:31
11J. HuberdeauL011070.60100—22:17
19M. MathesonD000-220.04020—21:25
68M. HoffmanC101040.33002020:55
63E. DadonovL000-120.36000—20:44
13M. PysykD000-110.02332—18:45
52M. WeegarD000010.01200—15:05
72F. VatranoR101+140.21300—14:41
95H. BorgstromC000-210.030003714:37
7C. SceviourC011+120.102001713:04
62D. MalginC000-210.080002911:50
55B. KiselevichD000000.00110—11:35
91J. LammikkoC000020.100106310:58
8J. HawrylukR000+100.00300—10:20
22T. BrouwerR000-200.0001010008:49
90J. McCannL000-200.00010—08:05
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1R. Luongo(L)33294.8792.02-1.9857:22

Season series

FLA leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).