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Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN4·Air Canada Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 7:39 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 70% to 86%. Expected goals were close — BUF 3.0, TOR 3.1; shots on goal were BUF 34, TOR 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Chad Johnson stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 1.9 goals below expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (2 G, 1 A), 2. William Nylander (2 G, 1 A), 3. Andreas Johnsson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Johnsson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF09110115234
TORTOR11231519536

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Johnsson(2)
    T. Plekanec (20), R. Polak (10)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:44

2nd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(24)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (34), R. O'Reilly (36)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    2:27
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(32)PPG
    M. Rielly (45), A. Johnsson (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    5:01
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(18)
    A. Matthews (27)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    7:39
  4. TOR
    W. Nylander(19)
    Z. Hyman (25)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +8 pts
    1-4
    10:32

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Pominville(14)PPG
    N. Baptiste (2), M. Scandella (16)
    wristxG 0.39win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    2:56
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(33)PPG
    W. Nylander (40), J. Gardiner (45)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +3 pts
    2-5
    6:29

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 7:24BUFMarco Scandella · High stickingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 13:11TORRoman Polak · High stickingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 19:09TORRoman Polak · High sticking double minordrawn by Jack Eichel4 min

2nd

  • 3:59BUFJustin Falk · Interferencedrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 11:13TORNazem Kadri · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Chad Johnson2 min

3rd

  • 0:59TORNikita Zaitsev · Hookingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 5:44BUFCasey Mittelstadt · High stickingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, 2nd 7:39 — TOR 70% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.37W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.23T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.20W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.17M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.13W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.12Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.10M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.10J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08A. Johnsson · Goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.06C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.06P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.01C. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.01C. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 3.1 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
3.02 G
All situations
5 G3.1
1.70 G
Even strength
3 G2.7
1.32 G
Power play
2 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF48%52%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.95 – 3.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
36
44%
Faceoffs
56%
2/5
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
23
Hits
32
12
Blocked shots
15
10
Giveaways
15
2
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD011-220.06310—26:00
15J. EichelC000030.120102522:49
8C. NelsonD000010.05020—21:48
90R. O'ReillyC011-270.220004221:25
23S. ReinhartC101-130.35000019:55
6M. ScandellaD011-320.11142—18:45
21K. OkposoR000020.292005018:19
41J. FalkD000-120.05112—18:04
71E. RodriguesC000020.211005016:22
20S. WilsonC000-110.15510015:03
29J. PominvilleR101-130.5100010014:49
28Z. GirgensonsC000-120.202006014:44
5M. TennysonD000010.10100—13:54
22J. LarssonL000-100.092006013:30
4J. GorgesD000000.01410—12:30
37C. MittelstadtC000000.001122012:01
13N. BaptisteR011-120.43000—10:43
67B. PouliotL000-110.08000—05:41
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31C. Johnson(L)36315.8613.13-1.8759:51

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).