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Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV NBCSN, TSN4·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zemgus Girgensons's goal at 13:30 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.4 to 1.9; shots on goal were TOR 41, BUF 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 3.1 goals below expected; Chad Johnson stopped 38 of 41 (.927). Three stars: 1. Jason Pominville (1 G, 1 A), 2. Johan Larsson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Sam Reinhart (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Pominville1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Larsson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    S. Reinhart1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR114111116341
BUFBUF2621414524

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(16)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (26), K. Okposo (27)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +8 pts
    0-1
    1:53
  2. BUF
    J. Pominville(11)
    R. Ristolainen (27), J. Larsson (10)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    3:43
  3. TOR
    L. Komarov(6)PPG
    W. Nylander (36), P. Marleau (16)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    19:52

2nd period

  1. TOR
    L. Komarov(7)
    M. Martin (9), N. Zaitsev (8)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    10:48
  2. BUF
    Z. Girgensons(7)
    S. Reinhart (20), R. O'Reilly (30)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +20 pts
    2-3
    13:30
  3. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(19)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    15:35

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Larsson(4)
    J. Pominville (15), J. Nolan (4)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +4 pts
    2-5
    9:55
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(18)PPG
    C. Carrick (5), M. Rielly (32)
    snapxG 0.05
    3-5
    17:57

Penalties

TOR 9 PIM·BUF 9 PIM

1st

  • 1:23TORConnor Carrick · High stickingdrawn by Jordan Nolan2 min
  • 18:39BUFZemgus Girgensons · High stickingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

2nd

  • 1:39BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Fightingdrawn by Nazem Kadri5 min
  • 1:39TORNazem Kadri · Fightingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen5 min
  • 1:39TORNazem Kadri · Cross checkingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

3rd

  • 16:14BUFSam Reinhart · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Frederik Andersen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Zemgus Girgensons, 2nd 13:30 — BUF 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.19J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.14J. Larsson · Goal · xG 0.14J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.14J. Josefson · On goal · xG 0.14S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.11N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Girgensons · Goal · xG 0.11K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.10J. Nolan · Missed · xG 0.08R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.07J. Pominville · Goal · xG 0.06N. Beaulieu · Missed · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.06R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.06S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.05M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.04M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02C. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.02B. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.01B. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · Missed · xG 0.01M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.00J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 1.9 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
3.43 G
All situations
5 G1.9
2.41 G
Even strength
4 G1.5
1.02 G
Power play
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR75%25%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.41 – 1.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
41
Shots on goal
24
43%
Faceoffs
57%
2/2
Power play
1/2
9
Penalty minutes
9
23
Hits
20
5
Blocked shots
13
13
Giveaways
8
1
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
51J. GardinerD000030.11000—22:47
44M. RiellyD011-310.01000—20:57
22N. ZaitsevD011+110.01220—19:31
8C. CarrickD011030.11022—19:30
16M. MarnerR101-250.511005018:20
29W. NylanderR011010.220002918:17
23T. DermottD000010.00200—17:30
2R. HainseyD000-400.09100—17:00
42T. BozakC000030.031006916:47
25J. van RiemsdykL000030.51000—16:42
11Z. HymanL000030.302005015:47
28C. BrownR000010.02100—15:18
12P. MarleauC011-330.180003815:15
47L. KomarovR202-150.72500—15:10
24K. KapanenR000010.03000—15:04
43N. KadriC000-340.420074314:56
19T. PlekanecC000020.073103811:17
15M. MartinL011010.09500—09:50
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)24195.7921.93-3.0757:32

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).