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Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN4·Air Canada Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Eichel's goal at 9:37 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 48% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.9 to 2.2; shots on goal were BUF 27, TOR 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 86% of the time. Chad Johnson stopped 39 of 41 (.951), 2.9 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jack Eichel (2 G), 2. Patrick Marleau (1 G, 1 A), 3. Zemgus Girgensons (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Eichel2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    P. Marleau1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    Z. Girgensons2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1701129327
TORTOR014215012241

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(23)
    Z. Girgensons (6)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:23

2nd period

  1. TOR
    N. Kadri(30)
    M. Marner (45), P. Marleau (19)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +22 pts
    1-1
    17:31
  2. TOR
    P. Marleau(24)PPG
    A. Matthews (24), J. Gardiner (40)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    18:42

3rd period

  1. BUF
    C. Nelson(3)
    K. Okposo (29), J. Larsson (12)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +28 pts
    2-2
    7:56
  2. BUF
    J. Eichel(24)
    J. Pominville (17), Z. Girgensons (7)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +32 pts
    3-2
    9:37

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·TOR 0 PIM

2nd

  • 17:36BUFJason Pominville · High stickingdrawn by Patrick Marleau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Jack Eichel, 3rd 9:37 — BUF 48% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.25W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.22Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.21N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.18M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.17N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.17T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.15T. Plekanec · On goal · xG 0.15J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.14W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.14N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.13J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.12P. Marleau · Goal · xG 0.11K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.07T. Plekanec · On goal · xG 0.07P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.07T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.07K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.07P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.06A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.06T. Plekanec · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.05T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.05J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.05M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.05R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.03T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.03J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.03J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.02R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.02T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.02J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.02T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.01T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 4.9 xG · 67 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
2.23 G
All situations
2 G4.9
2.23 G
Even strength
1 G4.1
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF14%86%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.15 – 4.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
27
Shots on goal
41
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/0
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
0
29
Hits
21
19
Blocked shots
8
11
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
16

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000+110.08420—26:29
6M. ScandellaD000000.00230—22:45
8C. NelsonD101+220.06020—22:12
15J. EichelC202+140.352205621:08
45B. GuhleD000020.19320—21:02
28Z. GirgensonsC022+120.20000018:38
29J. PominvilleR011+120.13102—18:22
22J. LarssonL011+110.093008017:15
20S. WilsonC000+130.19310015:35
21K. OkposoR011+100.00100—15:00
90R. O'ReillyC000010.042103514:54
41J. FalkD000010.09200—14:42
23S. ReinhartC000000.00000013:53
82N. BeaulieuD000+110.01250—12:50
71E. RodriguesC000040.230003011:35
17J. NolanC000010.11200011:22
67B. PouliotL000000.00210—11:05
13N. BaptisteR000020.39000—10:07
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31C. Johnson(W)41392.9514.91+2.9160:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).