Hurricanes at Capitals 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Carolina Hurricanes

▸4

Washington Capitals

FinalTV FS-CR, NBCSWA·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Washington Capitals 4-1. The Capitals scored first; the Hurricanes answered. The Hurricanes led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Justin Faulk's goal at 11:43 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals were close — CAR 2.9, WSH 2.8; shots on goal were CAR 30, WSH 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Scott Darling stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Derek Ryan (1 G, 1 A), 2. Justin Faulk (1 G), 3. Scott Darling (20 saves, .952).

Three stars

★
D. Ryan1 G, 1 A
★★
J. Faulk1 G
★★★
S. Darling20 saves, .952

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	08	217	25	430
WSH	06	110	05	121

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

M. Kempny(2)
J. Carlson (50), T. Oshie (28)
slapxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
0-1
2:35
D. Ryan(14)
J. Nordstrom (5), J. Slavin (22)
wristxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
1-1
3:15
J. Faulk(8)
P. Di Giuseppe (6), D. Ryan (21)
wristxG 0.09win prob +20 pts
2-1
11:43

3rd period

S. Aho(28)
V. Zykov (3), T. Teravainen (39)
wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
3-1
14:32
B. McGinn(16)EN
J. Staal (27), J. Williams (32)
wristxG 0.51win prob +1 pts
4-1
17:50

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

19:06Joakim Nordstrom · Boardingdrawn by Matt Niskanen2 min

2nd

13:03Tom Wilson · Slashingdrawn by Valentin Zykov2 min

3rd

19:09Lee Stempniak · Holdingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Justin Faulk, 2nd 11:43 — CAR 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.8 xG · 37 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.9 xG · 39 att WSH

1 G · 2.8 xG · 37 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.93 G
All situations: 1 G2.8; 2.23 G
Even strength: 1 G2.5; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.2; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

43%57%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.38 – 2.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 21; 58%
Faceoffs: 42%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 6
Hits: 22; 13
Blocked shots: 14; 6
Giveaways: 9; 7
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Carolina Hurricanes skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
74J. SlavinD	0	1	1	+3	4	0.04	0	3	0	—	23:46
27J. FaulkD	1	0	1	+3	3	0.18	1	2	0	—	21:50
57T. van RiemsdykD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.14	0	5	0	—	20:58
5N. HanifinD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	17:49
23B. McGinnL	1	0	1	+1	4	0.79	2	0	0	—	17:41
4H. FleuryD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	0	1	0	—	17:36
6K. DahlbeckD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	17:21
20S. AhoC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.15	0	0	0	45	17:12
28E. LindholmC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.20	0	0	0	70	17:06
86T. TeravainenC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.20	0	0	0	50	16:58
11J. StaalC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	1	0	0	73	16:31
73V. ZykovL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.09	0	1	0	—	16:05
53J. SkinnerL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.37	0	0	0	100	16:03
34P. Di GiuseppeL	0	1	1	0	2	0.23	0	1	0	—	15:17
14J. WilliamsR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.06	0	0	0	100	15:04
7D. RyanC	1	1	2	+2	1	0.14	1	0	0	0	11:28
21L. StempniakR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.07	0	0	2	—	09:45
42J. NordstromC	0	1	1	+2	3	0.17	1	0	2	0	08:39

Carolina Hurricanes goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
33S. Darling(W)	21	20	1	.952	2.82	+1.82	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score