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Islanders at Senators
NHL

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸4
Ottawa Senators
3
FinalTV MSG+, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Islanders led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andrew Ladd's goal at 17:57 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 48% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.2 to 1.8; shots on goal were NYI 31, OTT 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Jaroslav Halak stopped 33 of 36 (.917); Mike Condon stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Bobby Ryan (1 G, 2 A), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G, 2 A), 3. Andrew Ladd (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Ryan1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Duchene1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    A. Ladd1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI1152719431
OTTOTT28013115336

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(39)PPG
    J. Tavares (46), A. Pelech (13)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    6:15
  2. OTT
    M. Duchene(24)PPG
    J. Pageau (15), B. Ryan (21)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    12:54
  3. OTT
    E. Karlsson(9)
    M. Duchene (29), B. Ryan (22)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    14:49

2nd period

  1. NYI
    A. Beauvillier(17)
    M. Barzal (57), J. Eberle (30)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    1:23
  2. NYI
    B. Nelson(18)
    T. Fritz (4), A. Ladd (15)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    3-2
    18:42

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Ryan(11)
    M. Duchene (30), R. Dzingel (16)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +40 pts
    3-3
    15:26
  2. NYI
    A. Ladd(11)
    T. Hickey (18), M. Barzal (58)
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +46 pts
    4-3
    17:57

Penalties

NYI 13 PIM·OTT 9 PIM

1st

  • 2:51NYIBrock Nelson · Hookingdrawn by Max McCormick2 min
  • 5:14OTTZack Smith · Hookingdrawn by Anthony Beauvillier2 min
  • 12:13NYIScott Mayfield · Cross checkingdrawn by Tom Pyatt2 min

2nd

  • 9:30NYICal Clutterbuck · High stickingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 17:01OTTZack Smith · Fightingdrawn by Dennis Seidenberg5 min
  • 17:01NYIDennis Seidenberg · Fightingdrawn by Zack Smith5 min

3rd

  • 10:02OTTRyan Dzingel · High stickingdrawn by Thomas Hickey2 min
  • 12:51NYIChris Wagner · Cross checkingdrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNYI goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Andrew Ladd, 3rd 17:57 — NYI 48% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.22M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.21M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.21A. Burrows · On goal · xG 0.18A. Burrows · On goal · xG 0.16M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.15M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.13M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.12R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.12R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.11M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.09R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.09J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.08J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.08E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.08B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.07C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.07B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.07B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.07B. Sexton · On goal · xG 0.07E. Karlsson · Goal · xG 0.06M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.06M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.06M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.05A. Burrows · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.05F. Claesson · Missed · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.04M. Paajarvi · Missed · xG 0.04M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.03M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03M. McCormick · On goal · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.02M. McCormick · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Wolanin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01B. Ryan · Goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.00F. Claesson · On goal · xG 0.00J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 3.2 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsOTT
1.84 G
All situations
3 G3.2
1.53 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.31 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI26%74%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.77 – 3.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsOTT
31
Shots on goal
36
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
1/4
13
Penalty minutes
9
36
Hits
25
23
Blocked shots
15
9
Giveaways
10
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
50A. PelechD011+130.05040—23:10
14T. HickeyD011000.06130—22:00
6R. PulockD000+100.01320—19:51
88B. DavidsonD000030.03210—19:10
91J. TavaresC011020.170006118:05
4D. SeidenbergD000-120.08515—18:04
13M. BarzalC022010.050005716:05
72A. BeauvillierR101-120.1831010015:52
56T. FritzC011+210.0622010015:38
21C. WagnerR000020.095025015:05
29B. NelsonC101+140.235024314:57
42S. MayfieldD000+120.02232—14:33
12J. BaileyR000040.20000—14:15
7J. EberleR011-100.02030—14:07
16A. LaddL112+240.34020—14:00
15C. ClutterbuckR000000.00302—13:46
27A. LeeL101010.07300—13:28
52R. JohnstonL000000.11210—11:21
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41J. Halak(W)36333.9173.17+0.1759:52

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).