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Avalanche at Blackhawks
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Chicago Blackhawks
1
FinalTV ALT, NBCSCH·United Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Chicago Blackhawks 5-1. The Blackhawks scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikko Rantanen's goal at 5:01 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals were close — COL 3.6, CHI 3.4; shots on goal were COL 40, CHI 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blackhawks win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 44 of 45 (.978), 2.4 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 35 of 39 (.897), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyson Barrie (1 G, 1 A), 2. Semyon Varlamov (44 saves, .978), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    T. Barrie1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    S. Varlamov44 saves, .978
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL01631529540
CHICHI111015019145

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CHI
    B. Seabrook(5)PPG
    P. Kane (45), J. Toews (32)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    15:45

2nd period

  1. COL
    A. Kerfoot(16)PPG
    C. Wilson (11), S. Girard (18)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    2:07
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(26)
    N. MacKinnon (52), T. Barrie (40)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    5:01
  3. COL
    T. Barrie(12)PPG
    M. Rantanen (53), N. MacKinnon (53)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    12:40

3rd period

  1. COL
    E. Johnson(8)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.49win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    18:04
  2. COL
    A. Kerfoot(17)
    G. Bourque (6), D. Warsofsky (4)
    wristxG 0.10
    5-1
    19:03

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·CHI 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:15COLErik Johnson · Holdingdrawn by David Kampf2 min

2nd

  • 0:51CHIAndreas Martinsen · Slashingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 10:51CHIDavid Kampf · Elbowingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 18:10CHIJohn Hayden · Cross checkingdrawn by Dominic Toninato2 min

3rd

  • 0:25COLTyson Barrie · Slashingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min
  • 8:50COLTyson Jost · Hookingdrawn by John Hayden2 min
  • 19:56COLNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Duncan Keith2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CHI goalCOL goalFinal: CHI 0%

Biggest swing: Mikko Rantanen, 2nd 5:01 — COL 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.27N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.21P. Sharp · On goal · xG 0.20N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.13A. Martinsen · On goal · xG 0.13P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.13A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.12A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.12N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.12A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.12V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.11N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.11B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.11V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.10P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.09B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.09J. Toews · On goal · xG 0.07A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.07P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.06P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.06B. Seabrook · Missed · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.06N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.06B. Seabrook · Missed · xG 0.05D. Keith · On goal · xG 0.04P. Sharp · On goal · xG 0.04B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.04E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Seabrook · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.03E. Gustafsson · Missed · xG 0.03D. Keith · On goal · xG 0.03J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.03D. Keith · On goal · xG 0.03A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.03B. Seabrook · Goal · xG 0.02D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Martinsen · On goal · xG 0.02B. Seabrook · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02C. Murphy · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hayden · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02B. Seabrook · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01D. Keith · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.00
CHI1 G · 3.4 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsCHI
3.64 G
All situations
1 G3.4
2.22 G
Even strength
0 G2.7
0.92 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL43%57%CHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.88 – 3.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsCHI
40
Shots on goal
45
48%
Faceoffs
52%
2/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
26
Hits
28
33
Blocked shots
17
11
Giveaways
10
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6E. JohnsonD101+140.57372—28:43
4T. BarrieD112+150.29222—24:10
29N. MacKinnonC022+140.430104022:12
12P. NemethD000+100.02250—22:02
96M. RantanenR112+120.16210—20:27
92G. LandeskogL000+120.233404520:04
83M. NietoL000+110.07020—16:09
14B. ComeauL000+120.013103815:58
17T. JostC000+150.290024315:31
16N. ZadorovD000+110.03022—15:24
49S. GirardD011+110.02220—14:53
37J. CompherL000010.053107314:27
10S. AndrighettoR000030.07010—13:12
22C. WilsonC011+130.810007511:47
47D. ToninatoC000000.003104010:47
5D. WarsofskyD011+110.02000—10:47
57G. BourqueL011+120.18220—10:32
13A. KerfootC202+130.321106008:21
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1S. Varlamov(W)45441.9783.36+2.3660:00

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).