Avalanche at Blackhawks 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Colorado Avalanche

Chicago Blackhawks

▸2

Final/OTTV ALT, WGN·United Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Chicago Blackhawks beat the Colorado Avalanche 2-1 in overtime, Jonathan Toews scoring at 0:09. The Blackhawks scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonathan Toews's goal at 0:09 of overtime, which took the Blackhawks' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.7, CHI 2.6; shots on goal were COL 34, CHI 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.6 goals saved above expected; J-F Berube stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jonathan Toews (1 G, 1 A), 2. J-F Berube (33 saves, .971), 3. Erik Gustafsson (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Toews1 G, 1 A
★★
J. Berube33 saves, .971
★★★
E. Gustafsson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
COL	09	118	07	00	134
CHI	112	07	07	11	227

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

E. Gustafsson(2)
J. Toews (27), B. Saad (14)
wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
0-1
5:08

2nd period

N. MacKinnon(32)PPG
T. Barrie (35), G. Landeskog (27)
wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
1-1
16:18

Overtime

J. Toews(18)
P. Kane (39), D. Keith (28)
tip-inxG 0.18win prob +49 pts
1-2
0:09

Penalties

4 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

14:35Duncan Siemens · Holdingdrawn by Jonathan Toews2 min
16:58Jonathan Toews · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

2nd

15:32Connor Murphy · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

3rd

11:39Carl Soderberg · Interferencedrawn by Jordan Oesterle2 min
15:45David Kampf · Trippingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CHI

100%

Biggest swing: Jonathan Toews, OT 0:09 — CHI 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.6 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att CHI

2 G · 2.6 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.71 G
All situations: 2 G2.6; 2.10 G
Even strength: 2 G2.5; 0.51 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

52%48%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.65 – 2.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

34
Shots on goal: 27; 43%
Faceoffs: 57%; 1/3
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 6; 35
Hits: 19; 15
Blocked shots: 14; 7
Giveaways: 11; 9
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Colorado Avalanche skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4T. BarrieD	0	1	1	-1	2	0.15	1	2	0	—	27:35
16N. ZadorovD	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	4	3	0	—	23:36
12P. NemethD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	3	0	—	21:52
92G. LandeskogL	0	1	1	-1	4	0.48	0	0	0	80	20:20
29N. MacKinnonC	1	0	1	-2	3	0.38	0	1	0	29	20:18
49S. GirardD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.03	3	1	0	—	18:51
96M. RantanenR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	18:23
14B. ComeauL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	33	16:57
34C. SoderbergC	0	0	0	0	5	0.36	4	0	2	44	16:08
17T. JostC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	2	0	50	15:54
83M. NietoL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	0	—	15:17
37J. CompherL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.49	5	0	0	33	14:45
13A. KerfootC	0	0	0	0	2	0.22	2	0	0	57	13:23
15D. SiemensD	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	2	1	2	—	12:19
54A. LindholmD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	0	—	11:19
57G. BourqueL	0	0	0	0	3	0.20	4	0	0	—	11:11
64N. YakupovR	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	1	0	0	—	09:38
47D. ToninatoC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	0	33	08:41

Colorado Avalanche goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1S. Varlamov(O)	27	25	2	.926	2.55	+0.55	60:09

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks

1st period

2nd period

Overtime

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score