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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Colorado Avalanche
2
FinalTV FS-TN, ALT·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colton Sissons's goal at 13:39 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 47% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.2 to 2.8; shots on goal were NSH 28, COL 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 24 of 27 (.889). Three stars: 1. Juuse Saros (33 saves, .943), 2. Colton Sissons (2 G), 3. Gabriel Landeskog (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    J. Saros33 saves, .943
  2. ★★
    NSH
    C. Sissons2 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    G. Landeskog1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH11021216428
COLCOL11211508235

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(8)
    P. Subban (36), C. Smith (22)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    17:26
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(36)
    T. Barrie (39), M. Rantanen (50)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    19:01

2nd period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(23)
    G. Bourque (5), D. Warsofsky (3)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    3:28
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(19)
    C. Smith (23), R. Josi (37)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    6:28
  3. NSH
    C. Sissons(9)
    R. Hartman (20), N. Bonino (12)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    13:39

3rd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(20)EN
    V. Arvidsson (27)
    wristxG 0.92win prob +7 pts
    4-2
    18:51

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 0:58NSHColton Sissons · Holdingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 7:44COLGabriel Landeskog · Trippingdrawn by P.K. Subban2 min
  • 13:06COLTyson Barrie · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min

2nd

  • 13:54NSHYannick Weber · Interferencedrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 17:49COLNathan MacKinnon · Holdingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

3rd

  • 10:07NSHP.K. Subban · Roughingdrawn by Dominic Toninato2 min
  • 15:42NSHP.K. Subban · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 19:17COLNathan MacKinnon · Trippingdrawn by Nick Bonino2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Colton Sissons, 2nd 13:39 — NSH 47% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.24T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.20M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.16J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.11T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.10D. Toninato · Missed · xG 0.09T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.08S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.08C. Soderberg · Missed · xG 0.07G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.06T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.05M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.05C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.05M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.04C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.04G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.04C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.03T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.03S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.03T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.03B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.02B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.02D. Warsofsky · Missed · xG 0.02G. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.02S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01D. Warsofsky · Missed · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.00T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.00
COL2 G · 2.8 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
4.23 G
All situations
2 G2.8
1.93 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
0.80 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH47%53%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.60 – 2.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
28
Shots on goal
35
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/4
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
18
Hits
18
7
Blocked shots
15
2
Giveaways
2
10
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD011+230.19010—23:26
76P. SubbanD011+150.13214—23:20
4R. EllisD000+230.16010—23:02
14M. EkholmD000000.00010—21:48
10C. SissonsC202+240.341026418:47
92R. JohansenC000+110.272105017:32
9F. ForsbergL202+151.79110—16:52
33V. ArvidssonL011000.00100—16:08
8K. TurrisC000+110.050004314:59
13N. BoninoC011+110.070006713:59
15C. SmithC022+230.37000013:48
22K. FialaL000000.06000—13:28
51A. WatsonL000-100.66200—13:11
52M. IrwinD000010.01500—13:02
12M. FisherC000-100.000007712:51
38R. HartmanR011+110.08100—12:48
7Y. WeberD000-100.00112—12:45
20M. SalomakiR000-100.00200—10:14
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)35332.9432.82+0.8260:00

Season series

NSH leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).