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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV FS-TN, ALT·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colton Sissons's goal at 9:11 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 71% to 86%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.1, NSH 1.9; shots on goal were COL 31, NSH 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 3.1 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 29 of 31 (.935). Three stars: 1. Anthony Bitetto (1 G), 2. Pekka Rinne (29 saves, .935), 3. Craig Smith (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    A. Bitetto1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    P. Rinne29 saves, .935
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    C. Smith1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL01008213231
NSHNSH1102925524

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(7)PPG
    P. Subban (9), F. Forsberg (11)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    19:25

2nd period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(3)
    R. Josi (6), N. Bonino (1)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    9:11
  2. NSH
    A. Bitetto(1)
    C. Smith (3), K. Fiala (9)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    10:38

3rd period

  1. NSH
    M. Ekholm(4)PPG
    K. Fiala (10), R. Josi (7)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +1 pts
    0-4
    7:53
  2. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(8)
    P. Subban (10), A. Emelin (3)
    tip-inxG 0.23
    0-5
    11:51
  3. COL
    A. Mironov(1)
    N. Zadorov (2), A. Kerfoot (7)
    wristxG 0.03
    1-5
    15:23
  4. COL
    J. Compher(2)
    A. Kerfoot (8), A. Mironov (2)
    backhandxG 0.05
    2-5
    18:15

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·NSH 27 PIM

1st

  • 3:09NSHserved by K. Fiala · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 6:34NSHserved by K. Fiala · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 8:28NSHMattias Ekholm · Slashingdrawn by Colin Wilson2 min
  • 11:47NSHAustin Watson · Boardingdrawn by Dominic Toninato5 min
  • 11:47NSHAustin Watson · Game misconduct10 min
  • 18:25COLAlexander Kerfoot · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Turris2 min

2nd

  • 4:49COLAlexander Kerfoot · Trippingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 12:08COLAndrei Mironov · Holdingdrawn by Kyle Turris2 min
  • 14:12NSHMattias Ekholm · Holdingdrawn by Dominic Toninato2 min
  • 16:45NSHKyle Turris · Trippingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 19:43NSHRyan Johansen · Trippingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min

3rd

  • 5:58COLTyson Barrie · Trippingdrawn by Cody McLeod2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Colton Sissons, 2nd 9:11 — NSH 71% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Smith · Goal · xG 0.23V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.23F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.17F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.16C. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.14N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.11C. Sissons · Goal · xG 0.11K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · Goal · xG 0.05P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.05P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.04N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.03C. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03A. Bitetto · Goal · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.02K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Irwin · Missed · xG 0.01A. Bitetto · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 1.9 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
2.12 G
All situations
5 G1.9
1.12 G
Even strength
3 G0.8
1.00 G
Power play
2 G0.9
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL55%45%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.13 – 1.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
31
Shots on goal
24
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/7
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
27
10
Hits
11
11
Blocked shots
18
15
Giveaways
18
5
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6E. JohnsonD000-130.09010—24:06
49S. GirardD000-110.04220—21:19
4T. BarrieD000-130.09022—20:53
92G. LandeskogL000-150.58020—20:40
34C. SoderbergC000-110.010104019:23
96M. RantanenR000-110.141004319:18
29N. MacKinnonC000-110.310006718:55
13A. KerfootC022+100.00004016:18
10S. AndrighettoR000020.06000—15:46
64N. YakupovR000-120.09000—15:07
44M. BarberioD000-220.06010—14:42
22C. WilsonC000+120.24100013:53
83M. NietoL000-120.12000—13:44
16N. ZadorovD011+120.13110—13:19
14B. ComeauL000020.082005013:08
37J. CompherL101+110.050005012:28
47D. ToninatoC000000.002004510:20
94A. MironovD112+210.03112—09:46
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1S. Varlamov(L)24195.7921.90-3.1060:00

Season series

NSH leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).