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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
1
Nashville Predators
▸4
FinalTV FS-TN, ALT·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-1. The Avalanche scored first; the Predators answered. The Predators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roman Josi's goal at 13:30 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 58% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were COL 21, NSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 84% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 30 of 34 (.882); Pekka Rinne stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Viktor Arvidsson (1 G, 1 A), 2. Roman Josi (1 G, 1 A), 3. Alexei Emelin (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    V. Arvidsson1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Josi1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    A. Emelin2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL081607121
NSHNSH07314113434

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(1)PPG
    T. Barrie (4), M. Rantanen (5)
    deflectedxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    4:09
  2. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(3)
    F. Forsberg (3), A. Emelin (1)
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    7:07
  3. NSH
    R. Josi(1)PPG
    V. Arvidsson (2), F. Forsberg (4)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    13:30
  4. NSH
    C. Sissons(1)
    C. Smith (1), R. Josi (1)
    backhandxG 0.44win prob +13 pts
    1-3
    19:15

3rd period

  1. NSH
    A. Watson(1)
    A. Emelin (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +5 pts
    1-4
    4:08

Penalties

COL 12 PIM·NSH 12 PIM

1st

  • 2:09NSHPontus Aberg · Hookingdrawn by Colin Wilson2 min
  • 4:28COLErik Johnson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:35NSHColton Sissons · Slashingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min

2nd

  • 3:23NSHPontus Aberg · Slashingdrawn by Carl Soderberg2 min
  • 12:04COLMatt Duchene · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:11COLGabriel Landeskog · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min
  • 13:53NSHRoman Josi · High stickingdrawn by Erik Johnson2 min
  • 17:48NSHScott Hartnell · Delaying game2 min
  • 18:27COLTyson Barrie · Holdingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 19:15NSHColton Sissons · Chargingdrawn by Semyon Varlamov2 min

3rd

  • 8:03COLCarl Soderberg · Trippingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min
  • 17:37COLNail Yakupov · Interferencedrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Roman Josi, 2nd 13:30 — NSH 58% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Sissons · Goal · xG 0.44S. Hartnell · On goal · xG 0.38V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.31V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.27C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.20R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.16R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.15A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.13R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.13R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.13V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.12C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.11P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.09R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.08S. Hartnell · Missed · xG 0.08R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.08R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.06A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.05C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.04C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.04M. Irwin · Missed · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Emelin · Missed · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02P. Aberg · Missed · xG 0.02P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.01P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.01K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.01K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.01M. Irwin · Missed · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01A. Emelin · Missed · xG 0.01K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.01
NSH4 G · 4.1 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
1.81 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.10 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.71 G
Power play
1 G1.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL16%84%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.83 – 4.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
21
Shots on goal
34
35%
Faceoffs
65%
1/6
Power play
1/5
12
Penalty minutes
12
10
Hits
23
10
Blocked shots
11
6
Giveaways
14
8
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6E. JohnsonD000-210.04112—23:30
4T. BarrieD011-120.12022—21:50
3C. BigrasD000-100.03110—19:07
92G. LandeskogL000-110.131025018:57
29N. MacKinnonC101-110.360001017:57
44M. BarberioD000-100.03000—17:03
16N. ZadorovD000-110.13130—16:58
54A. LindholmD000010.00100—15:04
17T. JostC000-110.080004015:00
96M. RantanenR011-120.17000—14:50
9M. DucheneC000-110.070125614:46
10S. AndrighettoR000010.03200—14:38
37J. CompherL000-140.310204414:37
22C. WilsonC000-110.040003314:18
64N. YakupovR000-120.20102—14:09
34C. SoderbergC000000.000026712:41
14B. ComeauL000010.05200—12:15
13A. KerfootC000010.03000010:54
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1S. Varlamov(L)34304.8824.06+0.0660:00

Season series

NSH leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).