Wild at Blackhawks 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Minnesota Wild

▸2

Chicago Blackhawks

FinalTV NBCSN·United Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Chicago Blackhawks 2-1. The Blackhawks scored first; the Wild answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Suter's goal at 3:03 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 52% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Blackhawks, 3.5 to 2.5; shots on goal were MIN 27, CHI 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blackhawks win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Devan Dubnyk stopped 34 of 35 (.971), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Suter (1 G), 2. Devan Dubnyk (34 saves, .971), 3. Brent Seabrook (1 G).

Three stars

★
R. Suter1 G
★★
D. Dubnyk34 saves, .971
★★★
B. Seabrook1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	05	110	112	227
CHI	114	09	012	135

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

B. Seabrook(2)
M. Kempny (5), N. Schmaltz (20)
wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
0-1
12:24

2nd period

J. Brodin(4)
J. Zucker (16), M. Dumba (15)
slapxG 0.02win prob +18 pts
1-1
9:58

3rd period

R. Suter(6)
M. Koivu (17), M. Granlund (21)
wristxG 0.11win prob +21 pts
2-1
3:03

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

12:24served by T. Ennis · Delaying game bench2 min

2nd

15:27Connor Murphy · Holdingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min

3rd

1:24Marcus Foligno · Illegal check to headdrawn by Jan Rutta2 min
2:42Patrick Kane · Trippingdrawn by Charlie Coyle2 min
14:35Jonas Brodin · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
17:50Jordan Oesterle · Slashingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CHI

Biggest swing: Ryan Suter, 3rd 3:03 — MIN 52% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.5 xG · 54 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.5 xG · 36 att CHI

1 G · 3.5 xG · 54 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.52 G
All situations: 1 G3.5; 1.32 G
Even strength: 1 G3.2; 0.80 G
Power play: 0 G0.4; 0.40 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

33%67%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 3.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 35; 44%
Faceoffs: 56%; 0/3
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 31
Hits: 8; 27
Blocked shots: 10; 4
Giveaways: 9; 7
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
20R. SuterD	1	0	1	+1	3	0.17	5	1	0	—	26:52
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.11	5	3	0	—	25:42
24M. DumbaD	0	1	1	0	3	0.19	4	4	0	100	24:15
25J. BrodinD	1	0	1	+1	3	0.12	1	3	2	—	22:08
64M. GranlundC	0	1	1	+2	2	0.48	1	1	0	0	19:23
12E. StaalC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.44	0	1	0	43	18:23
9M. KoivuC	0	1	1	+2	1	0.07	2	1	0	41	17:58
11Z. PariseL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	0	1	0	—	17:53
16J. ZuckerL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.21	1	2	0	—	16:33
63T. EnnisR	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	2	1	0	—	15:45
3C. CoyleC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	2	0	44	14:51
26D. WinnikL	0	0	0	0	3	0.32	0	1	0	—	13:02
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	0	13:00
39N. ProsserD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	11:36
7M. CullenC	0	0	0	0	0	0.12	0	1	0	56	11:17
4M. ReillyD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	09:40
17M. FolignoL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	3	1	2	—	09:24
10C. StewartR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	06:18

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40D. Dubnyk(W)	35	34	1	.971	3.55	+2.55	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 3-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score