San Diego State was a touchdown better than the line let on

The number told one story; San Diego State told another. The betting line had the Aztecs as roughly a 17-point underdog. The smart read pegged them closer to a 9-point dog, and that's the gap that mattered. Knock nearly a touchdown off the price and you go from a team that's basically dead in the water to one with a real puncher's chance. The Aztecs played to the sharper number, not the inflated one.