Padres at Cubs
Last play · Marcos Castañon grounds out, shortstop Jefferson Rojas to first baseman Owen Miller.
Win probability
Cubs100%
SD 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 6 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Cubs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Castellanos doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Justin Dean. Rodolfo Durán scores. Bryce Johnson scores. (inning 4) — -19% Padres
9Nick Schnell homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Jose F Miranda scores.5–6
8Romeo Sanabria grounds out, shortstop Jefferson Rojas to first baseman Owen Miller. Anthony Vilar scores. Jase Bowen to 3rd.3–6
5BJ Murray Jr. doubles (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Nick Solak, deflected by center fielder Samad Taylor. Dylan Carlson scores. James Triantos scores.2–6
5Carson Kelly homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.2–4
4Nick Castellanos doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Justin Dean. Rodolfo Durán scores. Bryce Johnson scores.2–3
2Matt Shaw out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Nick Solak. Justin Dean scores.0–3
2Michael Busch hit by pitch. BJ Murray Jr. scores. Justin Dean to 3rd. Scott Kingery to 2nd.0–2
1Carson Kelly singles on a ground ball to left fielder Nick Solak. Michael Busch scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






