Mariners at Padres
Last play · Cal Raleigh grounds into a double play, second baseman Marcos Castañon to first baseman Romeo Sanabria. Brock Rodden out at 2nd. Cal Raleigh out at 1st.
Win probability
Padres100%
SEA 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 5 SD
Padres led after 5
Padres favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Jake Cronenworth scores. Nick Solak scores. (inning 2) — +20% Padres
7Nick Schnell homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Jase Bowen scores.1–7
2Jackson Merrill homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Xander Bogaerts scores.1–5
2Xander Bogaerts doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Jake Cronenworth scores. Nick Solak scores.1–3
2Nick Solak doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Freddy Fermin scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.1–1
2Luke Raley homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






