Royals at Braves
Last play · Jonathan India pops out to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
KC 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 4 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drake Baldwin homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 3) — +18% Braves
7Mauricio Dubón doubles (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Lane Thomas. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley scores. Mauricio Dubón to 3rd.0–6
4Michael Harris II homers (1) on a line drive to right field. Jonah Heim scores.0–4
3Drake Baldwin homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
1Ozzie Albies homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






