Twins at Orioles
Last play · Trevor Larnach strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
MIN 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 0 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colton Cowser out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Martin. Samuel Basallo scores. Tyler O'Neill to 2nd. (inning 7) — +22% Orioles
8Luke Keaschall out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Ward. Byron Buxton scores.1–2
7Blaze Alexander singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Tyler O'Neill scores.0–2
7Colton Cowser out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Martin. Samuel Basallo scores. Tyler O'Neill to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






