Twins at Orioles
Last play · James Outman flies out to left fielder Taylor Ward.
Win probability
Orioles100%
MIN 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 4 – 3 BAL
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Beavers doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Tyler O'Neill scores. Coby Mayo scores. (inning 6) — +34% Orioles
8Tristan Gray singles on a line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Josh Bell scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd. James Outman to 2nd.6–8
7Coby Mayo singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Adley Rutschman scores. Samuel Basallo to 3rd. Tyler O'Neill to 2nd.5–8
7Adley Rutschman doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Gunnar Henderson scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd.5–7
7Pete Alonso singles on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Taylor Ward scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd.5–6
7Royce Lewis homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.5–5
6Dylan Beavers doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Tyler O'Neill scores. Coby Mayo scores.4–5
4Tyler O'Neill homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Pete Alonso scores. Samuel Basallo scores.4–3
2Tristan Gray doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Dylan Beavers. Josh Bell scores. Victor Caratini scores. Trevor Larnach scores. Tristan Gray out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Dylan Beavers to second baseman Jeremiah Jackson to third baseman Coby Mayo.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






