Rangers at Orioles
Last play · Ryan Mountcastle strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
TEX 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 4 – 2 BAL
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Evan Carter scores. Kyle Higashioka to 2nd. (inning 2) — -15% Rangers
9Josh Smith singles on a fly ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Jake Burger scores. Andrew McCutchen to 2nd.5–2
5Gunnar Henderson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Colton Cowser scores. Blaze Alexander to 3rd.4–2
2Joc Pederson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Ward. Brandon Nimmo scores.4–1
2Jake Burger singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Kyle Higashioka scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd. Corey Seager to 2nd.3–1
2Brandon Nimmo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Evan Carter scores. Kyle Higashioka to 2nd.2–1
1Gunnar Henderson homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
1Jake Burger reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by pitcher Chris Bassitt. Brandon Nimmo scores. Wyatt Langford to 3rd. Jake Burger to 2nd. Jake Burger advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by pitcher Chris Bassitt.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






