Twins at Orioles
Last play · Pete Alonso grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Luke Keaschall. Taylor Ward out at 2nd.
Win probability
Orioles0%
MIN 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 3 – 1 BAL
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Royce Lewis homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Trevor Larnach scores. (inning 5) — -28% Twins
7Kody Clemens singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Royce Lewis scores.4–1
5Royce Lewis homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Trevor Larnach scores.3–1
4Josh Bell out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Ward. Byron Buxton scores.1–1
2Jeremiah Jackson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Colton Cowser scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






