Padres at Red Sox
Last play · Marcelo Mayer strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
SD 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 1 BOS
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ramón Laureano singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Ramón Laureano to 3rd. Ramón Laureano advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by left fielder Roman Anthony. (inning 9) — -34% Padres
9Ramón Laureano singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Ramón Laureano to 3rd. Ramón Laureano advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by left fielder Roman Anthony.3–2
8Andruw Monasterio grounds into a force out, pitcher Adrian Morejon to second baseman Jake Cronenworth. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Roman Anthony out at 2nd. Andruw Monasterio to 1st.2–2
3Freddy Fermin doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Miguel Andujar scores. Manny Machado to 3rd.2–1
2Marcelo Mayer out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Bryce Johnson. Willson Contreras scores.1–1
2Bryce Johnson grounds out, shortstop Trevor Story to first baseman Willson Contreras. Freddy Fermin scores. Ty France to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






