Padres at Red Sox
Last play · Willson Contreras strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
SD 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 6 – 4 BOS
Padres led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Campusano scores. Jackson Merrill scores. (inning 5) — -43% Padres
9Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Gavin Sheets scores.8–6
8Jackson Merrill homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.7–6
7Masataka Yoshida doubles (2) on a ground ball to second baseman Jake Cronenworth. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu scores.6–6
5Manny Machado homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Campusano scores. Jackson Merrill scores.6–4
4Nick Castellanos singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Masataka Yoshida. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd.3–4
4Jackson Merrill singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jarren Duran. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.1–4
3Masataka Yoshida doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Wilyer Abreu scores.0–4
3Wilyer Abreu triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jarren Duran scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






