Nationals at Cubs
WSH2–
CHC10Last play · Brady House grounds into a double play, shortstop Dansby Swanson to second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Daylen Lile out at 2nd. Brady House out at 1st.
Win probability
Cubs100%
WSH 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 6 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+203 / -252
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Nasim Nuñez. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Miguel Amaya scores. Michael Busch to 2nd. (inning 2) — +11% Cubs
6Carson Kelly walks. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.2–10
6Ian Happ homers (1) on a line drive to left center field. Matt Shaw scores. Michael Busch scores.2–9
5Nico Hoerner doubles (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.2–6
5Nasim Nuñez singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brady House scores.2–5
4Miguel Amaya homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–5
4James Wood homers (1) on a line drive to left center field.1–4
2Michael Busch reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Nasim Nuñez. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Miguel Amaya scores. Michael Busch to 2nd.0–4
2Miguel Amaya singles on a fly ball to first baseman Luis García Jr. Dansby Swanson scores. Moisés Ballesteros to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.