Nationals at Cubs
Last play · Moisés Ballesteros grounds out, pitcher Clayton Beeter to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Cubs0%
WSH 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 3 – 2 CHC
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+197 / -243
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Wiemer homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Brady House scores. Daylen Lile scores. (inning 1) — -28% Nationals
8Alex Bregman homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.6–3
8Keibert Ruiz homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Nasim Nuñez scores.6–2
6Keibert Ruiz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Daylen Lile scores.4–2
4Ian Happ homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
4Alex Bregman homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
1Joey Wiemer homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Brady House scores. Daylen Lile scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






