Red Sox at Reds
Last play · Dane Myers flies out to left fielder Roman Anthony.
Win probability
Reds0%
BOS 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 0 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-163 / +135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Marcelo Mayer scores. (inning 7) — -19% Red Sox
9Jarren Duran singles on a line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Roman Anthony scores. Trevor Story to 3rd.3–0
9Trevor Story singles on a line drive to left fielder Spencer Steer. Marcelo Mayer scores. Roman Anthony to 2nd.2–0
7Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Marcelo Mayer scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






