Red Sox at Reds
Last play · Dane Myers singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. TJ Friedl scores. Matt McLain to 2nd.
Win probability
Reds100%
BOS 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 5 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 9) — -38% Red Sox
11Dane Myers singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. TJ Friedl scores. Matt McLain to 2nd.5–6
9Wilyer Abreu homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.5–5
7Wilyer Abreu doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Jarren Duran scores.4–5
5Elly De La Cruz homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.3–5
4Trevor Story called out on strikes.3–4
4Roman Anthony singles on a ground ball to right fielder Will Benson. Carlos Narváez scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.2–4
3Sal Stewart homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
3Trevor Story homers (1) on a line drive to left center field.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






