Pirates at Reds
Last play · Nick Gonzales pops out to second baseman Matt McLain.
Win probability
Reds100%
PIT 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Steer out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 4) — +13% Reds
4Will Benson triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Eugenio Suárez scores.0–2
4Spencer Steer out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Sal Stewart scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






